Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions 1/6/25
- Luke Shuey
- Jan 6
- 3 min read
NBA: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Grizzlies) UNDER 28.5 Points
Good morning, Prop Nation! Coming off a 2-1 day of free plays (5-1 run overall) and our 7th straight profitable day for VIP clients we are seeing the board very clearly! I’m ready to lock in 3 more free plays for you guys tonight. Let’s kick things off in the NBA and I’m going back to the well on a pick that got us to the window on Saturday night. I like Jaren Jackson Jr. of the Grizzlies to go UNDER 28.5 points against the Mavericks. This game is going to be without most of the star power but you can still make money on it. Yes, Jackson Jr. is going to be the main source of offense for Memphis with Ja Morant out, but 28.5 is a VERY high line that only a couple players in the NBA are deserving of. JJJ has gone under this line in 21 of his last 23 games. That is a 91.3% cover rate for a line over a large sample size. I don’t care if he is expected to be the focal point and put up 20-25 shot attempts, it is simply a value play that I’m not willing to pass up on! If you play odds and trends like this where the numbers back it up, you will consistently hit at 55-65+% over time and make money. The modelling shows JJJ projected for 24 points tonight so I like the advantage we have on the under. Lock in Jaren Jackson Jr. UNDER 28.5 Points for the first dub!
NBA: Mason Plumlee (Suns) OVER 7.5 Rebounds
Onto free play #2 and I’m going with a plus money play in the Suns vs Sixers matchup. I like Mason Plumlee to go OVER 7.5 rebounds tonight. Backing Mason Plumlee, why?? Let me break it down. Jusuf Nurkic has been told he will no longer be in the starting lineup when he returns from his 3-game suspension tonight. Plumlee’s minutes have increased greatly but are still somewhat variable. Tonight, they’re facing Philly where they will need a big center on the floor at all times to guard Joel Embiid. I think Plumlee should certainly see 25+ minutes on the court and that’s plenty of time for the veteran to grab 8 boards. He’s snagged 8+ rebounds in 3 of his last 4 games and the numbers expect him to outperform Nurkic in this matchup statistically. Since this is plus money you’ll want to go a little lighter on this prop versus the other 2 but it’s still a good value play. Take Mason Plumlee OVER 7.5 Rebounds!
NBA: Keon Johnson (Nets) OVER 20.5 PRA (pts, rebs, assts)
The third and final free play is going to be Nets point guard Keon Johnson and I’m backing him! For awhile I was fading the 4th year role player but his playing time has increased so drastically with the following: Dennis Schroder and Shake Milton trade, Cam Thomas injury, and Cameron Johnson injury. The Nets top 3 scorers are out and he’s simply the next man up. His opportunity share has drastically increased. Johnson is playing 33 minutes/game over the last 5 games and his stats are coming with it. Last game he put up 15-8-8 to total 31 PRA. His combo stat line tonight sits at O/U 20.5 and I really love the over against a very average Pacers defense. Look for Johnson to get up 12-20 shot attempts tonight which should be more than enough to get him to the PRA line considering he can snag rebounds and also dish the ball since he’ll have a much higher usage rate. Lock in Keon Johnson OVER 20.5 PRA and let’s go 3-0!!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
