Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions - 2/21/25
- Luke Shuey
- Feb 21
- 3 min read
NBA: Rudy Gobert (Timberwolves) UNDER 13.5 Points
What’s up #PropNation! Yesterday we were green for VIP and solidly green in the NBA (6-3 +54*). However, free plays stunk and it’s time to bounce back big time! My top free play of the day is Rudy Gobert of the Timberwolves to go UNDER 13.5 Points. Pretty much the entire Timberwolves starting lineup is questionable heading into tonight’s game but regardless of lineup I am fading Rudy. He’s coming off his 2nd highest scoring game of the season with 20 points against the Bucks prior to the All-Star break. Last time he put up 20+ points he then went on a scoring drought, going under this line in 11 straight games. He averages 11 points/game on the season and is relied upon more in the post without Julius Randle but he’s not much of a threat outside of easy pick & roll buckets. Lastly, the matchup is great for a fade spot. In 3 games against the Rockets this season Gobert has gone under this number all 3 games, averaging 8.3 PPG. Lastly, and maybe most importantly, is the fact that Houston is the #1 defense in the NBA against the center position. They allow the fewest points/game due to Sengun and their athletic young roster. I love this play. Take Rudy Gobert UNDER 13.5 Points!
NBA: RJ Barrett (Raptors) OVER 3.5 Assists
For the 2nd free prop I’m looking to the assists category and want you guys to take RJ Barrett of the Raptors to go OVER 3.5 assists. Barrett has had a really incredible statistical season leading the Raptors in many ways due to injuries elsewhere. Barrett averages 5.6 assists/game on the season and I don’t expect 6 assists tonight with his usage rate decreasing on a healthy roster, but he should still get to the number of 4 or more tonight. He’s cashed this over in 4 of his last 6 games and has averaged 4.6 assists/game since January 1st. Barrett has also hit the over in all 3 matchups against Miami this season, averaging 7.3 assists/game against them. Barrett also tends to show out in primetime weekend games putting up 7.8 assists per game on Friday night games. If the Raptors can knock down a few open shots we are getting to the window easily here. Take RJ Barrett OVER 3.5 Assists!
NBA: Kyle Kuzma (Bucks) OVER 31.5 PRA (pts, rebs, assts)
For the third free play value spot I am on Kyle Kuzma in a revenge game. You can take his points or his PRA, but I’m going with PRA tonight! Kuz has played really well since the Bucks acquired him via trade from this Washington Wizards team, putting up 12+ points in every game so far. He’s going to be relied upon even more so the rest of the season without Bobby Portis. While they played last night I could see Giannis or Dame getting rest in this home-road back to back which only increases value. The main psychological factor is Kuzma facing his former Wizards roster in a gym he’s familiar with. Kuzma has never been shy to let it flicker and tonight that will be on display, with him likely putting up 10-15 shot attempts at minimum. He wants to prove to the Washington organization that he is in a better home and competing at a high level. Look for Kuzma to have a massive game tonight as the line indicates. Take Kyle Kuzma OVER 31.5 PRA!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
