Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions - 2/28/25
- Luke Shuey
- Feb 28, 2025
- 3 min read
NBA: Zach Edey (Grizzlies) UNDER 8.5 Points
A beautiful Thursday in the books! 2-1 on free plays and 5-1 on VIP plays in the NBA. More smoke coming at ya and we kick things right off in the Knicks vs Grizzlies game. While this game should be a scoring explosion I have a fade spot marked for Zach Edey. The rookie out of Purdue is having a solid campaign but this just isn’t a good matchup for him. Edey would have to guard the likes of Karl-Anthony Towns in the starting lineup and Towns spreads the floor, shooting the three and using his agility on offense. Edey also hasn’t been getting many shots up. Since the All-Star break the under here has gone 4-0, with him averaging just 5 points/game during that stretch. The matchup here simply lends itself to a smaller lineup and Edey being less involved. Edey put up 9 points in the one matchup against New York this season but he was clearly mismatched on the defensive end, as Memphis lost by 37 points. Lock in this first dub: Take Zach Edey UNDER 8.5 Points!
NBA: Naz Reid (Timberwolves) OVER 8.5 Rebounds
The next matchup I love is the bounce back game for Naz Reid of the Timberwolves. Last night we cashed his VIP prop of OVER 8.5 rebounds and I want you guys to smack that over again here. Reid was in early foul trouble and never got in a groove offensively last night, going just 1 for 10 shooting. Reid has been playing 30-40 minutes/game with Gobert and Randle both out due to injury. He’s gone over this line in 5 of the last 6 games, averaging 10+ rebounds in that span. My projections have him pegged for 9.7 rebounds tonight which is a nice advantage on the line. And he has potential to cruise way past that number. Lastly, Utah has not been rebounding the ball well lately, giving up the 4th most boards in the NBA over the last 3 games, averaging 60 per game. If Minnesota is anywhere near 60 rebounds Reid will cash this for us easily. Let’s get to the window again here: Take Naz Reid OVER 8.5 Rebounds!
NBA: Benedict Mathurin (Pacers) UNDER 13.5 Points
For the third and final free prop I like a fade spot for a player that’s trending down lately with emphasis. Benedict Mathurin of the Pacers has had a really solid year statistically, but his minutes have dropped significantly as of late! Mathurin was playing 34 minutes/game back in December and now he’s down to 22 minutes/game since the All-Star break. The Pacers are finding their lineup identity and his role is decreasing. Books show us they expect this depreciation to continue, posting his points line at O/U 13.5 despite his season average being over 16 points. Mathurin has gone well below this line in 3 straight games, putting up just 9 points/game during this stretch. The key for me though is his opportunity limitation. He is averaging just 7.75 shot attempts/game since the break, a 35% decrease from his season average. I love this trend. Take Benedict Mathurin UNDER 13.5 Points and let’s sweep the board! Enjoy your weekend, #PropNation!
***BONUS NCAAB FREE PICK: Trey Kaufman-Renn (Purdue) Over 19.5 Points
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
