Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions - 2/3/25
- Luke Shuey
- Feb 3, 2025
- 3 min read
NBA: Franz Wagner (Magic) UNDER 35.5 PRA (pts, rebs, assts)
Good morning #PropNation! Another really solid week in the books! Let’s make February as memorable as January in the profit margin. I’ve got three free props I want to break down in the NBA today. I’m going to start with Franz Wagner of the Magic to go UNDER 35.5 PRA. Wagner is an absolute beast in the stat sheet and has been all season. But we must consider that much of his season was played with most of the Orlando lineup injured, so he really had to take over. He’s come back from his own injury playing fantastic basketball, but tonight I see a fade spot, and the numbers agree. He’s going against a top 10 Warriors defense on the road and the Magic should have most of their starting lineup back. Goga Bitadze is expected to play and Jalen Suggs is questionable. I think that Golden State will defend him well with their athleticism and quickness and force others to beat them on offense. Wagner has averaged 39.3 PRA over his last 4 games but the books put his line about 4 PRA below this, telling us the value is on the under. The over is the public play here for anyone seeing his recent performances and his season averages. I love being selectively contrarian and this is a spot for me tonight. Give me Franz Wagner UNDER 35.5 PRA for the first dub!
NBA: Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks) UNDER 13.5 Rebounds
The next matchup I like is for Karl-Anthony Towns of the Knicks to go UNDER 13.5 rebounds tonight as the Houston Rockets come to town. Towns is of course a rebounding beast, ranking 2nd in the NBA at 13.6 RPG this season. At surface level his line is sharp, but the books are telling us the under has value. Towns put up 19 rebounds against this Rockets team in their one matchup this season but they didn’t adjust his line at all. The Rockets really are a solid rebounding team, ranking 8th at opponent center rebounds allowed and I expect Sengun to suit up tonight. Plus, Towns hasn’t covered this line in his last 3 games overall. His splits also favor the under as he puts up 13.0 RPG in home games and 12.6 per game on Monday games. Look for this to be a physical game and potentially a slower pace than most Knicks games have been lately. The total in the game shows us this as it sits at O/U 224.5. Lastly, I want to show you that the 19 rebounds he put up in the first matchup was an anomaly. The Knicks as a team had 39 rebounds in that game so Towns accounted for 49% of their rebounds. Complete statistical outlier for any team, any game. On the season he accounts for 26.7% of the team’s rebounding. He won’t double that again tonight. Lock in Karl-Anthony Towns UNDER 13.5 rebounds!
NBA: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks) UNDER 48.5 PRA (pts, rebs, assts)
For the third and final free prop I’m going to the Bucks vs Thunder game and guess what? We have a theme: FADE night. I am going Giannis Antetokounmpo UNDER 48.5 PRA. The Bucks are playing in a back-to-back after a tough, exhaustive loss at home in primetime last night against Memphis after leading all game. If you watched, Giannis was truly gassed with 6 minutes left and completely emptied his tank. He is an absolute dog and will come ready to play, but this is a HORRENDOUS spot for Milwaukee as seen by the line movement overnight. The Thunder were 7.5-point favorites and have gotten steamed up to 11 points as of writing this morning. This could be an OKC blowout. It’s a revenge game from when they got dominated in the NBA Cup Championship and couldn’t score a bucket, losing 97-81. They will show up tonight and do everything they can to shut down Giannis. The Greek Freak averages 50 PRA on the season and put up 55 PRA in their one matchup, not even playing a lot of the 4th quarter. Yet, the books put his line at 48.5 tonight, a great signal for the under. I love this play so much and think it is a lock spot. Take Giannis Antetokounmpo UNDER 48.5 PRA!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
