Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions - 3/3/25
- Luke Shuey
- Mar 3
- 3 min read
NBA: Isaiah Hartenstein (Thunder) UNDER 11.5 Points
Good morning Prop Nation! We are coming into this week on a 3-day profit streak. Not many months are as fun as March is for sports! Of course we have March Madness, NBA, and the start of MLB which we smashed last year. Let’s get right to the free picks. To start things off I want you guys to take Isaiah Hartenstein of the Thunder to go UNDER 11.5 points. Hartenstein averages 11 points/game on the season and has literally had his best two games of the season against the Rockets, putting up 19 and 21 points. That doesn't scare me. He faces Houston again tonight and I believe they’re coming into this game knowing they can’t let him get easy buckets off the pick & roll. Sengun and company are usually very effective at slowing down opposing centers as they rank 6th in the NBA in this category. I expect SGA and Jalen Williams to be ultra aggressive tonight coming off huge games last night against San Antonio where Jalen Williams put up a career-high 41 points. This game should be fairly physical and not be a complete shootout like some matchups in today’s NBA. Look for more of a grind it out style where Hartenstein ends with 8-9 points as the analytics project. I like our advantage on the posted line here - Take Isaiah Hartenstein UNDER 11.5 Points!
NBA: Ja Morant (Grizzlies) OVER 35.5 PRA (pts, rebs, assts)
The next spot I like tonight is in the Hawks vs Grizzlies matchup and I want you guys to take Ja Morant OVER 35.5 PRA. Outside of his 3-point shooting Morant has been finally balling and seeing a ton of playing time. This game is going to be an absolute score fest with the O/U sitting at 252.5 points and that type of matchup is ideal for Morant. Atlanta allows the 8th most fantasy points/game to opposing point guards. Who’s going to stop Morant from getting to the rim? Trae Young? Not a shot. If they put Dyson Daniels on him I think he takes it personally and gets even more aggressive. Oddsmakers post his PRA line tonight 3 above his season average, showing us that the value lies in the over. On a good night Ja can go for 30+ points or dish 10+ assists, racking up the stats. Lastly, history shows this is a favorable matchup as Morant put up 30, 11, and 6 (47 PRA) in his one game against Atlanta last year. Lock in this dub - Take Ja Morant OVER 35.5 PRA!
NBA: Andre Drummond (76ers) OVER 9.5 Rebounds
For the third and final free prop I have a rebounding prop bet that should fly over with enough playing time. I am looking at Andre Drummond of the 76ers to go OVER 9.5 rebounds tonight against the Portland Trailblazers. First, with Joel Embiid out for the season Drummond is seeing a ton of tick alongside Guerschon Yabusele as Philly’s two big men. Drummond averages just 7.6 rebounds/game on the year but that was primarily as a backup. Last game he posted 14 rebounds in 21 minutes against Golden State. I expect more of the same tonight against a Blazers team that doesn’t have any big men that spread the floor. Donovan Clingan is mainly a post player which favors Drummond’s matchup. Drummond has literally been one of the best rebounders per minutes played over the last 15 years, some seasons averaging 15 and 16 rebounds per game. Look for him to play 20-26 minutes tonight which should be plenty of time to get to double digits. Portland allows 15 rebounds/game to opposing centers so this is a solid value spot. Take Andre Drummond OVER 9.5 Rebounds and let’s sweep!!!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
