Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, NFL Picks, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions 12/21/24
- Luke Shuey
- Dec 21, 2024
- 3 min read
NFL: Najee Harris (Steelers) OVER 45.5 Rushing Yards
Another profitable night for free plays going 2-1 last night. I’m starting out in the NFL today and going Najee Harris of the Steelers to go OVER 45.5 Rushing Yards. He’s facing the stout #1 ranked Baltimore run defense but this doesn’t scare me like it does public bettors. It’s winter in the AFC North and that means ground and pound physical football. With Russell Wilson coming off back-to-back sub-200 yard passing performances running the ball is going to be key. When Pittsburgh beat Baltimore on November 17th Harris carried the rock 18 times for 63 yards and I expect another 15-20 carries today. Najee has gone over this line in 10 of 14 games this year, or 71% of the time. Lastly, the Steelers got behind last week and their running backs only combined for 10 carries for 26 yards. They will flip the script in this game knowing how critical their ground game is. This is a massive divisional game and we start out with a winner. Take Najee Harris OVER 45.5 Rushing Yards!
NFL: Xavier Worthy (Chiefs) UNDER 41.5 Receiving Yards
For free prop #2 I look to the other NFL game which should be a good one: Texans va Chiefs. I want you guys to take Xavier Worthy UNDER 41.4 Receiving Yards. This game is set up to be a defensive battle and Mahomes is coming in hurt. Normally Worthy’s line would tempt me with the over but the Chiefs are getting Hollywood Brown back from injury and I think Mahomes spreads the love. Worthy averages just 35 receiving yards/game this season and has gone under this line in 9 of 14 games. Houston is the 6th best pass defense, Mahomes hurting badly, and a better depth chart. All 3 lf these things lead to a smaller target share for Worthy who hasn’t had big numbers regardless. I have him pegged for 30-35 yards tonight max. Take Xavier Worthy UNDER 41.5 Receiving Yards!
NBA: Klay Thompson (Mavericks) UNDER 17.5 Points
Can’t sneak out of here without an NBA free prop and it’s my favorite FREE prop of the day! The Clippers take on the Mavericks in a repeat of Thursday night’s matchup. LA got the best of Dallas with both Doncic and Irving out of the lineup. Kyrie is off the injury report tonight so I expect him to play and carry the load. Because of this it’s now a fade for me on Klay Thompson’s scoring. His line is set at 17.5 despite him averaging 14.3/game, his lowest output since his rookie year in 2011-2012. The line is inflated because he’s scored more the last 4 games but I don’t think it continues against a top 5 Clippers defense. Klay has been a solid fade all season and I love this spot again tonight. Hammer time. Take Klay Thompson UNDER 17.5 Points for a dub!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
