Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, NFL Picks, NFL Free Picks, NNFL Predictions 12/15/24
- Luke Shuey
- Dec 15, 2024
- 3 min read
Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) OVER 267.5 Passing Yards
For the first NFL Sunday free prop we go to the Dolphins vs Texans. You know what I like in this game? I am backing the man who shouldn’t even be playing NFL football and that’s Tua Tagovailoa. He came back from another concussion when he likely should’ve retired but the man is on a mission. He has revived this Dolphins team and they are now fighting for their lives in the AFC playoff picture. Because of this, expect them to pass constantly and put it all on the table. His passing yards line is sitting at 267.5. He averages 273 yds/game on the season but the fact that oddsmakers post it this high against a Houston defense that allows less than 200 passing yds/game tells me something. They expect Miami to throw the ball a TON and look what Houston just did against Jacksonville. They almost lost the game 23-20 and they gave up 280 passing yards to Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence combined. The week prior the lose outright and allow 280 yards to Will Levis. And before that? 354 passing yards to the piss poor Cowboys offense and Cooper Rush. Teams have found out how to throw on this defense and Tua’s way better than those 3 QBs with way more talented playmakers. All of my analytics favor this play and the Dolphins receiving corps to go over as well. You could dial up a same game parlay with the likes of Achane, Waddle, Tyreek, or Jonnu Smith to go over their lines as well, but I’m sticking to my guns and going Tua Tagovailoa OVER 267.5 passing yards!
Saquon Barkley (Eagles) OVER 11.5 Receiving Yards
For the second free prop I am looking to the battle of Pennsylvania (Steelers vs Eagles) and I absolutely love a play in this game. We all know Saquon Barkley has demolished his rushing prop lines this season on his way to a potential MVP trophy and possibly breaking the NFL all-time rushing record. But the best value play here is to take his receiving yards line OVER 11.5 yards. The Steelers have the 4th ranked rushing defense and they’re going to load the box against Philly to stop the run. I really think the Eagles can use the passing game to their advantage and should get a couple screen passes or dump downs to Barkley. Plus, the Steelers are 10-3 and could potentially put up a fight/play with a lead which would lead to more passing downs for Philly. On the season Barkley averages 21 receiving yards/game and could crush this line with just one catch. Yes, they’ll pound him on the ground all game. But if they want to win there is a massive advantage in getting him involved in the passing game. Give me Saquon Barkley OVER 11.5 receiving yards for a winner!
Josh Jacobs (Packers) OVER 73.5 Rushing Yards
This has the makings of one of the best Sunday Night games of the year. The Packers and Seahawks have so much history in the last 20 years and both are looking at a potential playoff run again. Matt LaFleuer has found a huge win in Josh Jacobs at running back this season and he is absolutely feeding the beast. Jacobs is 4th in the NFL in rushing attempts and 3rd in yards, only behind Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. Prior to the last 2 weeks Jacobs went over his yardage line of 73.5 yards in 5 straight games and he’s averaging 81 yards/game on the season. With Seattle being a very average rushing defense, ranking 21st and giving up 127 yds/game I think the Packers establish the run early and often. Jacobs can go over 100 on any given night and he’ll have plenty of opportunities in this one. Expect 20+ carries for him tonight and to cruise over this line late in the 3rd quarter or early 4th. Take Josh Jacobs OVER 73.5 rushing yards!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
