Guardians vs Yankees Free Pick, MLB Free Pick, MLB Prediction 10/14/24

CLEVELAND @ NY YANKEES (NYY -160, 7.5)

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Guardians vs Yankees Free Pick, MLB Free Pick, MLB Prediction 10/14/24

GUARDIANS @ YANKEES 10/14/24

The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians are accustomed to one another in the postseason, but not when playing for an American League pennant. The ALCS begins Monday night with Game 1 of the best-of-seven series between the Yankees and Guardians, who finished with the top two records in the AL.

The two teams are similar. Both have strong pitching, very good bullpens, and they play excellent defense. They also have a number of great hitters. In Game 1, Cleveland right-hander Alex Cobb (0-1, 6.00) faces New York left-hander Carlos Rodon (0-1, 9.82 ERA).

This is the seventh time overall and the third time in the previous five seasons that the teams are facing off in the postseason. When they did play in the ALCS once, it was in 1998, and the Yankees won the final three games of the series to win it and advance.. In addition to winning the 2020 wild-card series, the Yankees  also won the AL Division Series in 2017 and 2022. That was the year MLB increased the number of playoff teams to 16 due to the 60-game season.

After finishing 94-68 , the Yankees won the race for the AL’s best record, edging Cleveland by 1.5 games to secure home-field advantage in the series. The Yankees' 3-1 victory over Kansas City on Thursday allowed them to win the ALDS in four games, so they have a rest advantage over Cleveland.

Throughout their series with Kansas City, the Yankees saw every game decided by two runs or fewer. The Yankees hit. 220 against the Royals. Aaron Judge was 2-or-13 while Juan Soto was 4-for-14 and Giancarlo Stanton was 6-for-16.

Cleveland is in the ALCS for the first time since 2016 after defeating the Detroit Tigers in five games. Steven Kwan batted .524 in the series but Jose Ramirez was only 3-for-16. In Saturday's 7-3 victory over Tarik Skubal, Lane Thomas had a grand slam and he batted .316 (6-for-19) for the series.

The Guardians were inconsistent against the Yankees during the regular season. That’s why they lost four of their six regular-season meetings with the Yankees. In the two victories, Cleveland scored 17 runs, but in the four defeats, they were outscored 25-5.

The Yankees decided to start the series with Rodon rather than Clarke Schmidt, who pitches Game 3 on Thursday. That will give Schmidt a longer layoff. Rodon was scheduled to start Game 5 of the ALDS on Saturday, but that game was not needed.

A week ago, in Game 2 against Kansas City, Rodon gave up four runs on seven hits in 3.2 innings. It was a rare bad outing for Rodon who won a career-high 16 games in the regular season. After registering seven strikeouts in a fast start, Rodon faltered in controlling his slider in the midst of a four-run fourth inning. In his 21 career appearances (19 starts), Rodon is 8-5 with a 2.81 ERA against Cleveland, including a no-hitter when he was with the Chicago White Sox on April 14, 2021. Rodon did not face Cleveland during the regular season.

Of all the Guardians on the current roser, Ramirez has faced Rodon the most. The Cleveland third baseman is 10-for-43 (.233) with five RBIs. Cobb lost Game 3 against Detroit on Wednesday after throwing 41 pitches and giving up two runs on three hits in three innings. The game ended 3-0. Cobb has a ton of experience facing the Yankees because he played in the AL East with the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles from 2011 to 2020. He is 7-5 with a 3.19 ERA in 20 regular-season starts against New York.

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Coach Rick Bowe Free Pick

FREE PICK:  UNDER 7.5

It’s Game 1. Both teams will try and feel each other out early. The Guardians haven’t faced Rodon this season. He had a tough go in his only playoff start (3.2 IP, 4 ER), but he had a career-high 16 wins this year and his September ERA was just 2.20. Alex Cobb had a 2.76 ERA for the season and he allowed 2 ER or less in each of his last three starts. Both teams rank in the top 5 in bullpen ERA and that’s a big reason why the Under is 14-6 in Cleveland’s last 20 games. The Under has also cashed in 10 of the Guardians last 15 road games.