Heat vs Bulls Free Pick, NBA Free Pick & Predictions 1/29/25

J.A. Cavalier
5 days ago
2 min read

NBA ODDS, NBA PREDICTIONS, NBA PREVIEWS

Heat vs Bulls Free Pick

The Chicago Bulls are well-positioned to defend home court tonight, even as Miami appears as a slim favorite at select sportsbooks. From a situational and analytical standpoint, the edge leans clearly toward Chicago. The Bulls have been strong at the United Center this season, posting a 15–10 straight-up record, while the Heat have struggled to generate consistent results away from home, sitting at just 10–15 on the road.

Offensively, Chicago has found a clear identity built around ball movement and tempo control. The Bulls rank third in the NBA in assists per game (29.9) and lead the league in assist ratio (21.0), signaling an offense that consistently creates high-quality looks rather than relying on isolation scoring. That approach is particularly effective against defenses dealing with personnel gaps.

Miami’s defense ranks a respectable 10th in defensive rating (112.8), but tonight’s matchup is complicated by significant absences in the backcourt. With both Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier ruled out, the Heat lose critical perimeter scoring and playmaking, placing additional strain on their remaining rotation.

Those absences open the door for Chicago’s primary facilitators. Josh Giddey and Coby White are well-equipped to exploit defensive breakdowns through ball movement, pace, and secondary actions. When combined with Chicago’s strong home form, the matchup presents clear value on the Bulls in a spot where health, venue, and offensive cohesion all align in their favor.

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FREE PICK Over 239.5

This number looks big until you actually count possessions. Chicago plays at the second-fastest pace in the league, and Miami—surprise—has gone full turbo this season, number one in pace at 104.8. When you get two teams sprinting like that, the scoreboard starts working overtime whether the defenses like it or not. And speaking of defense, Miami just gave up 133 to Orlando, and it wasn’t a fluke—they rank 25th in putback points allowed, which means missed shots turn into bonus points for Chicago. Add in the fact that both teams sit in the bottom third in points allowed, and now you’ve got pace, second-chance buckets, and leaky defense all pointing the same way. Public sees a huge total and gets scared; sharps see volume, chaos, and free points hiding in the math. This game’s not about efficiency—it’s about opportunity, and there’s going to be plenty of it. If this one doesn’t sniff 240, something went very wrong