How to Win Your March Madness Bracket Contest

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 3/16/26

How to Win Your March Madness Bracket Contest

It’s here. The 2025-26 NCAA tournament will begin with the First Four on Tuesday, March 17. The first of four play-in games will officially kick off the 2025-26 NCAA tournament. The field of 68 was announced on Sunday night and you and millions of others scrambled to complete your March Madness tournament bracket.

Whether it’s an office pool or one of the many online bracket contests, it can be difficult and frustrating to win. But, we love the Cinderella story, the upsets that happen every year. Those are one of the big reasons why we love the tournament. Picking those upsets is easier said than done.

Before you set your bracket in stone, Coach Rick has a few suggestions that may help you at least end up in the money in your March Madness bracket contest.

Start at the End

Go to the Final Four, then work backwards. There’s a good reason why. 

You might be tempted to predict a few upsets in Rounds 1 and 2. There will be a few. That’s almost a given. Since the NCAA increased the tournament field in 1985, there have been  an average of 12 upsets per tournament. 

For the purposes of this article, readers must understand the definition of upset. Here, an upset is considered a win by a team that is at least two seeds lower than its opponent. For example, when a No. 10 seed beats a No. 7 seed in a Round 1 game, that is an upset. However, when the No. 9 seed beats the No. 8 seed, that is not considered an upset.

It’s also worth noting that teams seeded lower than No. 6 rarely make the Final Four. Over the last 41 tournaments (since the 1985 expansion), only 18 teams seeded lower than No. 6 have advanced to the Final Four. The most recent was No. 11 N.C. State in 2024.

Florida Atlantic did it as a No. 9 seed in 2023, but no team seeded lower than No. 8 has ever won an NCAA tournament. In fact, the lowest seed to ever win a national championship was in the very first year of the tournament’s expansion. No. 8 seed Villanova pulled off a dramatic upset of Georgetown to win the 1985 national title. 

Since UConn won the NCAA tournament in 2014 as a No. 7 seed, there have been 10 national champions. Remember, the tournament was cancelled in 2020 due to COVID-19. Eight of those ten champions were No. 1 seeds. Villanova was a No. 2 seed in 2016 and UConn was a No. 4 in 2023.

Picking Upsets

What we love about the NCAA tournament are the upsets. However, picking them correctly in your bracket is a whole different story. You have to choose wisely when attempting to pick an upset. Selecting random teams and hoping for the best is not a strategy. That will destroy your bracket.

What if you had some data to help you determine how to choose your upsets? That’s where Coach Rick comes in. Remember, there are an average of 12 upsets per tournament. The most upsets occur in the first round of the tournament. If there is an average of 12, some of the upsets will occur later in the tournament so we can estimate that roughly six of the upsets could take place in Round 1.

Now, No. 1 seeds have only lost twice in opening round games (Purdue 2023, Virginia 2018). No. 2 seeds also do not lose many games in Round 1. Only 11 No. 2 seeds have ever won a first-round game. The most recent was Princeton in 2023. The Tigers upset Arizona 59-55. 

The first-round matchup that produces the most upsets is the No. 7-No. 10 game. There have been 63 No. 10 seeds that have won their first-round game of the NCAA tournament since 1985. In last year’s tournament, there were two - Arkansas and New Mexico.

Why is it that No. 10 seed’s have so much success in opening round games? Typically, the No. 10 seed is one of two types of teams. It is either the major conference team that is talented but lost several games playing in a very tough league. Last year’s Arkansas team was exactly that. Texas A&M and Missouri fit the bill this year.

The other type of team is last year’s New Mexico or this year’s Santa Clara. It’s a mid-major team that had an outstanding season and either won its conference or was pretty close to winning it. There have been great examples of these mid-major teams that have done very well in the NCAA tournament. Think back to Butler in 2018 or VCU in 2016.

Advancing in the Tournament

As the NCAA tournament progresses, the number of upsets will decline in each round. If a maximum of six upsets occur in Round 1, you should choose about half as many upsets in the next round. If you did choose six first-round upsets, you should keep it to three or less in Round 2.

Keep in mind that No. 3 and No. 6 seeds usually win in the first round. No. 3 seeds have a winning percentage of 86 percent in Round 1. No. 6 seeds win 61 percent of their first round games. That sets up a No. 3 vs. No. 6 in Round 2. 

Since 1985, a No. 6 seed has beaten a No. 3 34 times. It happened twice last year. Ole Miss beat Iowa State and BYU upset Wisconsin. In 2023, Creighton advanced to the Sweet Sixteen as a No. 6 seed and Clemson did the same thing in 2024. Who could it be this year?

No. 2 seeds win 93 percent of their opening round games. Remember, No. 7 seeds often get knocked out of the first round by the No. 10 seed. But, it is still more likely to see a second-round No. 2 vs. No. 7. That said, the No. 7 seed has upset the No. 2 seed 27 times. The most recent was in 2023 when Michigan State beat Marquette. It’s also worth noting that last year after Arkansas pulled off a first-round upset as a No. 10 seed, the Razorbacks also beat the No. 2 seed St. John’s to advance to the Sweet Sixteen.

Historically, at least one No. 2 and one No. 3 seed are going to lose in the second round. Your job, of course, is to figure out which ones. It can be difficult. In 2019, all of the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds won and advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. In 2024, Baylor lost as a No. 3 seed in the second round. Last year, Iowa State (3), St. John’s (2), and Wisconsin (3) were all eliminated in the second round.

Coach’s Corner

So, here’s the deal. If you already filled out a bracket, you may want to go back and adjust it. Or, maybe you do another one based on some of the ideas presented here.

Remember, you get more points for picking the national champion. You get more points for wins in the Elite Eight and Sweet Sixteen. Correctly picking a first-round 7-10 upset is great, but it’s not going to help you win your bracket contest. 

To summarize:

1. Start your bracket at the end by picking the national champion and Final Four first.

2. Teams seeded 1 through 6 are more likely to make the Final Four.

3. There are an average of 12 upsets in an NCAA tournament.

4. An upset is a win by a team seeded at least two spots lower than its opponent.

5. No. 1 and No. 2 seeds rarely lose in the first round.

6. The most likely first round upset is the 7-10 game.

7. At least one No. 2 or No. 3 seed is going to lose in the second round.

8. A No. 1 seed has won 8 of the past 10 NCAA tournaments.

9. The lowest seed to ever win a tournament was Villanova (8) in 1985.

Hopefully, these tips help you in winning your NCAA tournament bracket contest. Good luck and, of course, giddy up!

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