Lightning vs Bruins Free Pick, NHL Free Picks, NHL Predictions 10/13/2025
- nhl
- Oct 13
- 2 min read
When the Tampa Bay Lightning and Boston Bruins meet, you expect elite skill, offensive fireworks, and plenty of highlight-reel plays. That’s exactly what this matchup projects again — and why the Over 6 goals is the play to make.
Even without their full roster firing yet, the Lightning remain one of the league’s most dangerous offensive teams. Last season, Tampa averaged 3.56 goals per game, ranking among the NHL’s top scoring units. With Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point already in midseason form, their power play looks lethal. Boston’s penalty kill hasn’t settled in yet, and Tampa’s ability to turn even minor mistakes into goals makes them a constant over threat.
While the Bruins’ reputation has long been built on defense, this version of Boston looks different. The David Pastrňák line is generating chances at a ridiculous clip, and they’re shooting with confidence. Over their last few outings, the Bruins have averaged over 3 goals per game, and they’re pushing pace more than usual. Against a Tampa defense that’s been inconsistent in coverage, there’s every reason to believe they’ll get theirs.
The Lightning have yet to regain their once-elite defensive structure. Transition coverage has been sloppy, and the blue line hasn’t been able to protect the slot as well as it used to. They’re giving up quality looks — and lots of them. Boston’s defense, meanwhile, has shown cracks, especially in clearing rebounds and managing speed through the neutral zone. Both teams can score in bunches, but both can also get scored on in bunches.
Tampa’s goaltending hasn’t been steady to start the season, and even Andrei Vasilevskiy can’t be expected to erase defensive breakdowns night after night. On the other side, Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark are solid but have shown early-season rust. The combination of elite shooters and shaky early goaltending almost always tilts games toward the over.
Their combined scoring average sits at 6.3 goals per game.
With the total set at a flat 6, we’re getting fair value for two teams whose styles naturally generate chances and quick momentum swings.
This matchup rarely stays quiet. Tampa loves to push pace, especially if they fall behind early, while Boston’s top lines don’t sit back on leads — they keep attacking. That’s how over bettors win: multiple lead changes, open-ice transitions, and special-teams opportunities. All of those boxes are checked in this one.
This isn’t shaping up as a 2-1 grinder — it’s more like a 4-3 or 5-3 type of night. Both teams have enough firepower to break it open, and both defenses are too shaky to hold it down for 60 minutes.
If you’re betting this game, don’t overthink it.
Take the Over 6 and enjoy the fireworks. FREE PICK: TB/BOS OVER 6.0 GET YOUR NHL PACKAGE TODAY
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