Lions vs Texans Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 11/10/24

Lions vs Texans (DET -3.5 O/U 48.5)

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Lions vs Texans Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 11/10/24

Detroit vs. Houston | Monday, November 11, 2024

Sunday Night Football is an incredible spectacle in Week 10, with the 7-1 Detroit Lions heading south to face the 6-3 Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. At this point in the season, both teams are very much considered playoff caliber and both lead their respective divisions.

For the Texans, a sudden flurry of offensive injuries have quickly applied pressure to CJ Stroud. Nico Collins has been out since Week 5 with a hamstring injury, and Stefon Diggs tore his ACL in Week 8 and will miss the rest of the season.

Fortunately for Stroud, all reports are pointing towards Collins making his return this weekend, and while Diggs will be missed, the Texans are back to last year's strength as a unit even without him.

You could argue that despite Diggs’ absence they’re in fact better than last year's Texans, largely because of the presence of running back Joe Mixon. The former Bengals back has five 100+ yard games in six outings, and has now carried the football 24-25 times in three straight games. Not only is he performing, but he’s managing an intense workload for the Texans offense, and playing a pivotal role because of it.

However, Houstons’ offense has underwhelmed this year in comparison to Stroud’s rookie season. Some are attributing that to the dreaded ‘sophomore slump’, while others feel other teams now have some tape on the former Buckeye quarterback, and can prepare to face him.

The Texans are averaging 5.2 yards per play, which actually puts them in the bottom third in the NFL. Stroud’s completion percentage at 63.02% is 22nd among NFL teams, and while they’re posting over 221 passing yards per game (13th), it still doesn’t look as smooth as you’d expect it to on film.

On the plus side, the Texans defense remains the most efficient in pass coverage, with the league's best record in completion percentage allowed (54.87%). They’re allowing just 167.4 passing yards per game, while ranking top 10 in interceptions, and top five in sacks. By all accounts the defense has won them some games, and it's a scary thought to consider how good they might be if the offense regains its 2023 form.

Detroit are flying so fast they seem almost unstoppable right now, and have immediately accounted for the absence of Aidan Hutchinson by trading for veteran pass rusher Za’Darius Smith. Hutchinson had eight sacks in just five games before a nasty leg injury took him down, but Za’Darius Smith has five of his own, and at least brings the experience and threat as a rusher back to the table.

Detroit’s defense forces teams into passing situations quickly, with teams running the football against them just 35% of the time (2nd in the NFL). While they’re allowing over 250 passing yards per game, their secondary is impressive at taking the ball away, with the 5th highest interception percentage in the game.

Jared Goff, Ben Johnson and the Lions offense continue to dominate as arguably the league's most consistent unit, with absolute the league's best running back tandem. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery contribute to the league's best rushing touchdown team (1.8 per game), while also ranking as a top five unit in several other categories on the ground.

The Lions 32.3 points per game as a team ranks number one, as does their four touchdowns a game, and as it stands, opposition franchises are struggling to find a weakness.

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