SGP: Man Utd Win or Draw + Man Utd Over 0.5 Team Goals at +160 (20*)
Arsenal’s title hopes are effectively dead after Liverpool's win this weekend. Most advanced models now give Liverpool a 99.3% chance of lifting the Premier League trophy, meaning this game carries significantly less weight for the Gunners.
Given that reality, I expect Arteta to manage his squad accordingly, likely rotating key players in midfield and defense to avoid compounding their already growing injury concerns ahead of a potential deep Champions League run.
Some might argue that Manchester United are in the same boat—too far from Europe, and safe from relegation—but I think they have far more motivation here. Their pride has been badly bruised this season, and after a positive result in the Europa League, another strong showing at home would go a long way toward repairing some of the damage.
The Data Backs United at Home
United’s attacking numbers at Old Trafford remain strong despite their inconsistencies. They’ve averaged 1.72 xG per 90 at home, with 13.57 attempts per game.
In their last 10 home games against Top 6 opposition, they have gone unbeaten in six and averaged 1.5 goals per game.
Arsenal have won just 50% of their road games this season, with most of those victories coming against bottom-half opposition.
Form & Momentum
United are unbeaten in four straight across all competitions:✅ 1-1 vs Everton✅ 3-2 vs Ipswich (with 10 men)✅ 1-1 vs Fulham (FA Cup, lost on penalties)✅ 1-1 vs Real Sociedad (Europa League, away)
This is one of those spots where you have to make a tough play. We’ve printed money fading United this season, but based on the matchup, team motivation, and most importantly, the price, I see no value on Arsenal here.
Ylose Soccer expert Neil Mac has been delivering profits month on month with his European Soccer expertise.. Follow all his plays from the Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1 Serie A, Champions League, Europa League and Internationals with his weekly package below