Mets vs Cubs Free Pick, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 9/24/25

NY METS @ CHICAGO CUBS (CHC -125, 7.5)

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Mets vs Cubs Free Pick, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 9/24/25

METS @ CUBS 9/23/25

Lately, New York has been a rollercoaster. They've lost two of their last five games, and Tuesday's decisive 9–7 victory over the Cubs ended a difficult run. The Mets have been wildly inconsistent. Back-to-back defeats in which the offense faltered, scoring only two and three runs, made the Washington series brutal. Those losses came after they thrashed Washington 12–6 and defeated San Diego 6–1.

At the plate, it's either feast or famine. Injuries haven’t helped. Winker, Taylor, and essentially half of the pitching staff are hurt. Younger arms like Jonah Tong have been forced into situations for which they may not be prepared as a result. The Mets have won four of their last five head-to-head games against Chicago. The Mets have also hit the Over a lot as the underdog. Last night was another example of that. Don’t forget, New York has a poor road record as of late (1–6 SU in their last seven away games).

The Cubs have now lost five in a row, including the 9–7 loss to the Mets on Tuesday. Before that, Cincinnati held them to a total of eight runs over four games, sweeping them in ugly fashion. Losing Owen Caissie and Kyle Tucker from the lineup hasn't helped, and the bats have cooled off at the wrong time.

Additionally, their pitching hasn't helped, giving up 24 runs in those five losses. Since the starters aren't getting deep, the bullpen usage is starting to mount. The Cubs are hoping Matthew Boyd can give them a solid 6 to 7 innings. The Cubs are only 1–4 in their last five games against New York at Wrigley, despite being a strong home team for the majority of the season.

Tong is still figuring things out as a rookie. With only 16.2 innings pitched thus far, the numbers are unimpressive: 1.44 WHIP, close to a 6.00 ERA, and three home runs given up. The splits say it all: righties light him up (.343 avg, .657 slugging), while lefties hardly touch him (.167 avg). That combination is risky when facing a Cubs lineup that includes some powerful right-handed hitters. Although he has a promising strikeout rate (21 Ks in 16.2 IP), there is a real risk of long balls.

Boyd, on the other hand, is a dependable veteran who is enjoying one of his best years in Chicago. He has maintained a clean 1.11 WHIP and 3.20 ERA over 174 innings. He limits damage, particularly against lefties (.239 avg.), and doesn’t walk many batters. He has just 41 walks this season. He has largely kept the ball in the yard, but right-handers have caused a little more damage (16 HRs). After wearing down their bullpen in the Reds series and again on Tuesday, the Cubs desperately need him to go deeper in the game  tonight.

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FREE PICK: OVER 7.5

Last night’s game saw a combined 16 runs and we could see similar results tonight. Boyd starts for the Cubs and while he’s been a solid option for Chicago, Mets hitters have had success against him. Current Mets hitters have a .313 batting average and a .406 wOBA against him in 72 plate appearances. Tong is still in the early stages of his development and he has had some issues. His 5.94 ERA speaks to that and right-handed hitters have given him problems. The Cubs have five righties in their lineup. Despite a recent slump, the Cubs are still a top 10 scoring team, averaging nearly 5 runs per game. The Over has cashed in 4 of their last 5 home games