Mets vs Padres Free Pick, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 7/28/25

NY METS @ SAN DIEGO (SD -130, 7.5)

MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS

Mets vs Padres Free Pick, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 7/28/25

METS @ PADRES 7/28/25

Before Thursday's MLB trade deadline, many predict that the San Diego Padres will make significant trades. Starting pitcher Dylan Cease might make his final appearance for the team tonight when they begin a three-game series against the visiting New York Mets. Cease is expected to be traded.

With a 3.47 ERA and a 14-11 record in 2024, Cease (3-10, 4.59 ERA) had a much better season than his previous one. That July, he no-hit Washington and struck out 224 batters in 189.1 innings. The right-hander has not performed nearly as well this year because he has thrown home run balls at the wrong times. The power pitcher, however, has focused primarily on determining why he and the team aren't seeing the outcomes they desire and hasn't given much thought to possible new destinations.

In his most recent start, a 3-2 loss on Wednesday in Miami, Cease gave up three runs (two earned) on four hits and three walks while striking out five batters in five innings. That gives him a total of 144 in just 113.2 innings. However, Jesus Sanchez's two-run homer that ended the game was one of those hits. Cease lost last year at Citi Field and is 0-3 with a 6.88 ERA in 17 innings in his three career starts against New York.

The Padres cranked out 16 hits and scored their most runs since an 11-run explosion against the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 10 as they wrapped up a 5-5 road trip Sunday with a 9-2 victory in St. Louis. They lead Cincinnati by one game for the NL's final wild-card berth going into Monday's action.

After winning 5-3 at San Francisco on Sunday to complete a series sweep and increase their lead over Philadelphia in the NL East to 1.5 games, the Mets will once again be sleeping in unfamiliar beds for this series. After going 0–2 at the beginning of the second half, they have now won seven in a row.

For the first game of the series, they will hand the ball to Frankie Montas (3-1, 4.62). On Tuesday, he defeated the Los Angeles Angels 3-2 at home after working 5.2 innings, giving up two runs off of eight hits and two walks while whiffing six. In his three career appearances against San Diego, Montas is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA in 18.2 innings.

New York expanded their roster on Friday by acquiring lefty reliever Gregory Soto from Baltimore, but the Padres have not yet made a trade before the deadline. Soto's 1-2-3 seventh inning on Sunday, which included a strikeout, was a good start.

In his 45 appearances with the Orioles, Soto pitched to a 3.96 ERA, 0–2 record, and one save. He was thrilled to be joining a team that aimed to win the World Series. Last year, New York split four games at Petco Park in August and defeated San Diego five times out of seven meetings.

Get free MLB Picks and MLB Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2025 MLB schedule from JA Cavalier, one of the industry's premier expert MLB handicappers. J.A. Cavalier has been  bringing the MLB betting community the MLB free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best MLB money line and run line odds and game totals. 

FREE PICK: DYLAN CEASE OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS

Cease is tied for seventh in MLB with 144 strikeouts for the season. He averages 6.86 strikeouts per game and he did not go Over this prop in his last start against Miami. He did, however, go Over in 6 of his previous 8 starts, which includes back-to-back solid performances against the Dodgers (11 and 9 Ks). Cease has great numbers against current Mets hitters and he did go Over 6.5 in his last start against them, which was last August. Cease pitches better at home where his ERA is sub-4.00. He has 65 Ks in 51.2 IP at Petco Park.