Michigan State vs Illinois Free Pick, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 2/15/25
- J.A. Cavalier
- Feb 15
- 3 min read
MICHIGAN STATE @ ILLINOIS (ILL -6.5, 156.5)
CBB ODDS, CBB PREDICTIONS, CBB PREVIEWS
SPARTANS @ FIGHTING ILLINI 2/15/25
A couple of weeks ago, Michigan State stood as the only team in the Big Ten without a loss. Fast forward two weeks, and three losses in their last four games have sent the 11th-ranked Spartans (19-5, 10-3) plummeting into third place in the conference. The path doesn't become any less rocky for Coach Tom Izzo and his squad as they gear up for their confrontation against Illinois (17-8, 9-6) in Champaign, IL, this Saturday night.
Recalling the time when the Spartans enjoyed a 9-0 streak in the Big Ten, Izzo talked about how the league could be won with four or five losses. The Spartans are now at a disadvantage because they lost a game at home that they shouldn’t have. MSU lost to Indiana at home on Tuesday night.
Izzo could have broken former Indiana head coach Bob Knight’s record for most conference wins with a victory over the Hoosiers. The anticipation of that accomplishment had brought all sorts of Spartans alumni out on Tuesday. But, it was not to be as Indiana went home with a 71-67 victory.
Izzo is still stuck at 353 Big Ten wins. His Spartans trailed the entire second half, falling victim to something Knight hated - zone defense. Indiana hadn’t really used the zone much, but it caught MIchigan State off guard. The Spartans would make just 4-of-20 from three-point range in the loss.
This season, the Spartans have been struggling with their three-point shots, consequently making zone defense a smart move. The team heads into Saturday's game with a disappointing 28.8 percent success rate on three-pointers. Michigan State averages 5.6 successful three-point shots per game.
The Spartans' dismal performance ranks them among the nation's bottom ten teams, with no other power-conference team faring worse. Jaden Akins is MSU’s best scorer with an average of 13.4 points per game. He also has the most successful three-point attempts (36), but he shoots just 29.3 percent from behind the arc.
Illinois' head coach Brad Underwood has a preference for playing man-to-man defense to push adversaries off the three-point line and force them to take challenging mid-range shots. Illinois doesn’t play much zone defense.
Illinois has had a taste of the Spartans' success with two-pointers (25-of-55) and free throws (21-of-27). That is what led Michigan State to an 80-78 victory when they hosted the then 19th ranked Illini on Jan. 19.
Illinois needs to ensure its top scorer, freshman point guard Kasparas Jakucionis, avoids fouling out as he did in just nine minutes of their first meeting. Jakucionis, along with 7-foot-1 sophomore Tomislav Ivisic and freshman wing Will Riley, form a powerful trio, as evidenced by Jakucionis matching his career high score of 24 points in the recent wins against Minnesota and UCLA.
The home team has won each of the last four meetings between these two teams. The last eight games in the series have been decided by nine points or less.
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COACH RICK FREE PICK:
KASPARAS JAKUCIONIS OVER 15.5 POINTS
Jakucionis is Illinois’ leading scorer averaging 16 points per game. He scored 24 in each of his last two games after being held to 7 by Rutgers. Jakucionis was in foul trouble in that game. He was also in foul trouble (he eventually fouled out) in the first game against MSU. He only played 9 minutes and ended up with just three points. I think he takes that to heart and comes out blazing in the rematch at home. Jakucionis has gone Over this number in 13 of his last 18 games this season.
