Panthers vs Buccaneers Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 12/29/24

Carolina vs Tampa Bay (TB -8, 48.5)

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Panthers vs Buccaneers Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 12/29/24

Carolina vs. Tampa Bay | Sunday, December 29, 2024

The NFC South was blown wide open in week 16, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost on Sunday Night Football to the Dallas Cowboys. In doing so, they gave up their lead in the division, now tied again with the Atlanta Falcons, who hold the tiebreaker. They simply must be perfect from here on out, and they now have to face a Carolina Panthers side that is looking like a much tougher opponent than they did earlier in the year.

The Panthers are coming off a dramatic 36-30 overtime win against the Arizona Cardinals, continuing their good run of form in the second half of the season. Whilst they do still only have four wins to their name, they very much held their own against the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, as well as forcing overtime against these Buccaneers just a few weeks ago. Bryce Young passed for 298 yards and one touchdown in that game, whilst also collecting 17 yards and another score on the ground. With Tampa Bay giving up 354.3 yards per game, eight most in the NFL, this is another great opportunity for Bryce Young to continue building his confidence.

Tampa Bay are a top-10 run defense, but are giving up the third most passing yards per game, with 250.3, which is not helped by the absence of superstar safety Antoine Winfield Junior. This is certainly a defense you want to attack through the air, and with Young coming fresh off a game in which he achieved a pass rating of over 100 for the first time, Panthers fans should be feeling confident.

Of course, scoring points is just one-half of getting a win. Keeping your opponents out of the end zone is equally important, and the Panthers just happen to be the worst in the league at that. Their 29.9 points conceded per game ranks dead last, and their 385.9 yards conceded per game, is second worst. Their biggest vulnerability is their run defense, which is also ranking dead last, giving up a whopping 175.2 rushing yards per game. That is particularly concerning when you consider they are going up against a Tampa Bay offense that ranks seventh in the NFL with 143.7 yards per game on the ground.

Bucky Irving has been the star of the show, collecting 920 yards so far this year at 5.5 yards per carry. He should absolutely feast in this matchup, and will be an attractive option for Tampa Bay, as quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrown at least one interception in each of his last four games. Bucky Irving can help Tampa Bay control the game, make sure that the Buccaneers' defense is well-rested, and keep a confident Bryce Young off the field.

Despite the interceptions, Mayfield is still getting it done through the air. He is nearing 4,000 yards for just the second time in his career and already has 35 touchdowns, to go along with his 15 interceptions, which is tied for the second most in the league. Rookie wide receiver Jalen McMillan has now posted at least 50 yards and one touchdown in each of his last three games, and Mike Evans needs 182 yards from his last two outings to continue his outrageous streak of eleven 1,100-yard seasons alive.

All in all, this should be a fun matchup between two intriguing offenses, and two porous defenses. It really is crazy to think that Carolina are now a fun team to watch.

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Buccaneers -8