Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 1/21/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 1/21/26

UTSA vs. NORTH TEXAS (NT -16.5, 137.5)

CBB ODDS, CBB PREDICTIONS, CBB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK CBB PREVIEWS

ROADRUNNERS @ MEAN GREEN 1/21/26

Tonight's matchup between the UTSA Roadrunners and the North Texas Mean Green at The Super Pit features a massive statistical mismatch. North Texas enters as a huge favorite, backed by one of the most efficient defenses in the country. UTSA is struggling through an 11-game losing streak and ranks near the bottom of Division I in several key defensive metrics.

North Texas is a defensive juggernaut, ranking 35th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (99.7) and 15th in points allowed per game (64.8). They are facing a UTSA team that is currently 345th in the KenPom rankings and has failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games. The Mean Green have been much more reliable for bettors recently, covering in four of their last five outings.

North Texas holds opponents to just 29.1% from three-point range (17th in NCAA). UTSA’s offense relies heavily on the long ball (87th in 3-PT rate) but shoots a dismal 27.4% from deep (358th).

The Mean Green are 8-2 at home this season and 14-2 over their last 16 home games. North Texas has a Net Rating of +3.01 compared to UTSA’s -18.35. The Roadrunners allow 79.17 points per game on average, which plays right into the hands of a North Texas team that excels at suffocating struggling offenses.

North Texas is coming off a solid 71-63 road win against Tulane, where they showcased their ability to get to the free-throw line (22-of-27). Meanwhile, UTSA was dismantled by Memphis 95-69 in their last game, allowing Memphis to shoot 56.3% from the floor. 

The statistical profile of North Texas suggests a low-scoring affair. North Texas plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country (64.8 Adj. Tempo, 323rd), and their elite defense consistently keeps games under the total. In 10 of their last 11 games, North Texas has scored under 77.5 points, and they concede only 63.5 points per game at home.

North Texas is also able to force turnovers (15.9 per game) and limit transition opportunities that usually neutralize fast-paced opponents. UTSA’s effective Field Goal percentage (eFG%) is a lowly 41.8% (363rd). It is difficult to envision them scoring enough to have success against a top-40 defense. 

What’s interesting is the last several meetings between these two teams. Last year, the final score was just 52-50. In fact, the last six meetings have all totaled 132 points or less. The last four have gone Under the total. 

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FREE PICK: NORTH TEXAS -16.5

These are two teams headed in different directions. North Texas is starting to get it under first-year head coach Daniyal Robinson. The Mean Green are still one of the best defensive teams in the country - 15th in points allowed (64.8) - and at home at the Super Pit they are tough to beat. North Texas is 8-2 SU at home this season and 14-2 SU in the last 16. UTSA has lost 11 straight and their offense is trending in the wrong direction. The Roadrunners are 329th in scoring (68.6 ppg), 364th in FG% and 356th in 3-PT FG%. North Texas has won 7 of the last 10 against UTSA and the Mean Green has held UTSA to 60 points or less in 6 of the last 7 meetings.

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