Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 1/30/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 1/30/26

DARTMOUTH @ YALE (YALE -14.5, 155.5)

CBB ODDS, CBB PREDICTIONS, CBB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK CBB PREVIEWS

BIG GREEN @ BULLDOGS 1/30/26

The Ivy League clash between the Dartmouth Big Green and the Yale Bulldogs tonight presents a significant statistical mismatch. Yale enters as a heavy home favorite, boasting one of the most efficient offenses in the country, while Dartmouth looks to build on recent conference momentum after pulling off a major upset against Princeton earlier this month.

The Bulldogs are currently one of the most efficient teams in the nation, ranking 26th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (122.4) according to KenPom. They feature an elite shooting profile, ranking 6th nationally in three-point percentage (40.0%) and 25th in free-throw percentage (77.6%). This offensive juggernaut is led by Nick Townsend, who boasts a 124.4 Offensive Rating and is a matchup nightmare due to his ability to score both inside and out (47.6% from three).

The statistical mismatch for Dartmouth is glaring. While the Big Green have shown flashes of brilliance—including a 102-91 road win over Cornell—they rank 251st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (113.1). Dartmouth struggles significantly with interior defense, allowing opponents to shoot 54.7% on two-point attempts (275th). Yale’s Samson Aletan (61.8% 2P%) and Isaac Celiscar (64.5% 2P%) are perfectly positioned to exploit this weakness. Furthermore, Yale has historically dominated this series at home, and predictive models project an 88-73 victory for the Bulldogs.

Yale is 15-3 overall and has won four of its last five games, including a 17-point road win over Penn. The Bulldogs are 4-1 in Ivy League play and 6-1 at home this season. Yale ranks sixth in the nation in Offensive Efficiency compared to Dartmouth at 195th. The Bulldogs take care of the ball as they have one of the lowest (tied for 15th) turnover percentages in the country. Dartmouth is a defense that doesn’t force many turnovers (357th). 

Dartmouth’s primary offensive weapon is their three-point shooting, where they rank 10th nationally (39.5%). However, Yale’s defense is disciplined and excels at limiting high-quality looks. If Dartmouth’s perimeter shots aren't falling in the hostile environment of New Haven, they lack the interior presence to manufacture points, as they rank 240th in two-point field goal percentage. 

Yale has the deeper lineup too. Townsend is the Bulldogs’ stud, but they also have Isaac Celiscar (131.7 OffRtg), Aletan (130.3 ORtg), and Riley Fox (128.1 ORtg). Dartmouth’s defense lacks the personnel to contain four different players with Offensive Ratings over 125. Dartmouth also struggles with ball security, ranking 291st in turnover percentage (19.2%), which will lead to easy transition buckets for a disciplined Yale squad.

Yale has won the last 10 straight games against Dartmouth. The Bulldogs are also a perfect 9-0 the last nine times the Big Green has visited New Haven. Yale is coming off a dominant 77-60 road win against Penn, where their defense looked impenetrable. 

Dartmouth is looking to bounce back after a 79-69 loss to Columbia. The matchup between Yale's elite three-point shooting (6th in D1) and Dartmouth's perimeter defense (18th in 3PT% defense) will be the key.

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FREE PICK: YALE -14.5

Yale is one of the most efficient teams in the country. They rank No. 70 in the latest KenPom rankings. This is a huge step up in class for Dartmouth (9-9, 3-2). Yale’s Adj. Off. Efficiency is 14 points higher than Dartmouth’s plus this is a Big Green defense that ranks 209th in Adj. Def. Efficiency. The Bulldogs are No. 6 in Offensive Efficiency, average 83.1 ppg, and have four players with Off. Eff. Ratings over 125. The Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games and they’ve been dominant at home - 102-68 vs. Cornell and 91-74 vs. Columbia. Yale has won five straight against Dartmouth and 10 straight. Four of the last five games at Yale have been decided by 16 points or more.

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