Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 2/23/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 2/23/26

HOUSTON @ KANSAS (HOU -2.5, 138.5)

CBB ODDS, CBB PREDICTIONS, CBB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK CBB PREVIEWS

COUGARS @ JAYHAWKS 2/23/26

This Big 12 clash at Phog Allen Fieldhouse is a massive "bounce-back" spot for two of the nation's elite programs. No. 2 Houston (23-4) is looking to avoid its first three-game losing streak since 2017 after narrow losses to Iowa State and Arizona. Meanwhile, No. 8 Kansas (20-7) is reeling from a shocking 16-point home loss to Cincinnati.

The statistical profile of this game suggests a high-level tactical battle where Houston’s defensive pressure meets Kansas’ interior efficiency. Houston ranks 6th in KenPom and 7th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (93.4), while Kansas sits at 19th in KenPom but remains elite at home, where Bill Self holds a legendary 40-0 record in Big Monday games.

Houston is the more stable unit entering this environment. While winning at the Phog is historically difficult, the Cougars' identity is built on traits that travel: turnover pressure and offensive rebounding. Houston forces turnovers at a 21.4% rate (12th nationally), while Kansas has struggled with composure recently, particularly with the availability and health of Darryn Peterson. 

Houston’s senior leadership, led by Emanuel Sharp (16.4 PPG) and Milos Uzan (11.1 PPG), provides the veteran poise needed to handle the Lawrence crowd. The Cougars have won three straight against the Jayhawks and possess the physicality to exploit a Kansas defense that just allowed 1.24 points per possession to Cincinnati.

Houston is 2nd in the Big 12 in Offensive Rebound Percentage (ORB%), while Kansas ranks near the bottom (13th) in defensive rebounding efficiency within conference play. This creates a massive shot volume advantage for the Cougars. Even if Kansas shoots a higher percentage, Houston’s ability to manufacture extra possessions through offensive rebounds and forced turnovers (23.7% TORD) should allow them to cover this short number. Houston has covered 54.2% of games this season when favored by 2.5 or more, whereas Kansas has struggled to keep pace in recent blowout losses to Cincinnati and Iowa State.

While Houston is known for a slow tempo (354th in AdjT), this total is set too low for the offensive talent on the floor. Kansas averages 77.9 points in Big 12 play and shoots 53.3% on two-pointers. Houston’s offense has evolved, ranking 10th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (126.2). Recent trends show that when these two titans meet, the scoring often exceeds expectations due to high-level shot-making from players like Kingston Flemings (16.6 PPG) and Darryn Peterson (19.8 PPG). Kansas’ perimeter defense has been shaky, allowing a conference-high 9.7 made threes per game, which opens the door for Emanuel Sharp and Kingston Flemings to push this game over the total.

Houston’s Joseph Tugler (15.1% OR%) and Chris Cenac Jr. (7.8 RPG) are elite at creating second-chance opportunities. Kansas must rely on Flory Bidunga (9.3 RPG) to stabilize the defensive glass, but the Jayhawks' recent performance against Cincinnati (where they were dominated physically) suggests Houston has the upper hand here.

Houston’s ability to force turnovers is its greatest weapon. They force turnovers on nearly 24% of defensive possessions. Kansas, while generally good at protecting the ball, has shown cracks under pressure, and Melvin Council Jr. will be under immense heat from Houston's guards to keep the offense organized.

Kansas owns a better effective field goal percentage (53.8% vs. 51.3%), but Houston takes more shots. If Houston maintains its 38.2% offensive rebounding rate, they can survive a lower shooting percentage by simply out-attempting the Jayhawks.

The Big Monday atmosphere is legendary, but the narrative tonight surrounds Darryn Peterson. His health (cramping issues) and consistency have been a major distraction for Kansas. He missed the Jayhawks' best win against Arizona but was present for the recent blowout losses. In contrast, Houston’s Kingston Flemings has been a model of consistency, averaging 16.6 points and 5.2 assists. This freshman-on-freshman battle will likely determine the late-game execution. Houston is desperate to avoid a three-game skid, a rarity for Kelvin Sampson, and the Cougars usually shine brightest when their backs are against the wall.

Get free CBB Picks and CBB Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2026 CBB schedule from the YLose.com  crew, one of the industry's largest networks of premier expert CBB handicappers. YLose.com has been bringing the CBB betting community the best CBB free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best CBB moneyline and point spread odds and game totals.ls.

FREE PICK: HOUSTON -2.5

Houston hasn’t lost three games in a row since 2017. The Cougars opened as a 1.5-point favorite and overnight bettors hammered Houston pushing this line to 2.5. Houston has won three straight against the Jayhawks, including two wins just last season. The Cougars are 5-2 on the road this season and 18-2 in their last 20 road games. Playing at the Phog on a Big Monday will not faze Houston. The Cougars ability to force turnovers and rebound on the offensive glass will be the difference. 

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Ylose expert Coach Rick Bowe delivers his daily Quick Picks. The Coach continues to roll up big wins in college basketball, college football, the NFL, MLB and much more. Coach Rick offers a unique perspective to handicapping. Check out his daily free picks right here and jump on his daily Best Bets, which you can find right here at Ylose.com/coach.