Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 2/26/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 2/26/26

MICHIGAN STATE @ PURDUE (PUR -7.5, 142.5)

CBB ODDS, CBB PREDICTIONS, CBB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK CBB PREVIEWS

SPARTANS @ BOILERMAKERS 2/26/26

Tonight’s clash at Mackey Arena is the only matchup on the slate featuring two ranked teams, and the stakes couldn't be higher. Both the Michigan State Spartans and the Purdue Boilermakers enter this contest with identical 22-5 overall records and 12-4 marks in Big Ten play. This game is a battle for positioning in the conference tournament and a classic "Elite Offense vs. Elite Defense" showdown.

Purdue boasts the nation's #2 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (129.8), while Michigan State counters with the #7 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (92.3). While Purdue has dominated the head-to-head series recently (winning 8 of the last 10), the Spartans have been a thorn in their side for bettors, covering the spread in 6 of the last 7 meetings.

The market is giving a full touchdown to a Spartans team that is arguably the best defensive unit in the country. Michigan State ranks 2nd nationally in effective Field Goal percentage (eFG%) defense, sitting 2nd in two-point defense and 3rd in three-point defense. This "defense travels" mantra is exactly why the Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against Purdue.

Purdue’s offense is a juggernaut, led by Braden Smith (8.7 APG, #2 nationally) and Fletcher Loyer (13.6 PPG), but they have struggled against elite defensive units. In games against the Big Ten's top five eFG% defenses, Purdue has lost three times and shot just 30.5% from deep. Furthermore, Purdue is a dismal 5-10 ATS at home this season, often winning but failing to cover large numbers against disciplined opponents. With both teams playing at a bottom-100 adjusted tempo (approx. 65 possessions), points will be at a premium, making a 7.5-point cushion massive.

While this matchup features a top-tier defense in Michigan State, the sheer efficiency of Purdue’s offense at home often forces games over the total. The Over has hit in seven of Purdue’s last eight home games. The Boilermakers shoot a blistering 39.3% from three (12th in NCAA) and 59.7% from two (21st in NCAA).

Michigan State isn't just a defensive team. The Spartans rank 10th nationally in assists (18.6 per game) and feature a balanced scoring attack with Jeremy Fears Jr. (15.0 PPG) and Jaxon Kohler (12.3 PPG). Purdue’s defense is vulnerable, ranking outside the top 200 in two-point defense and outside the top 100 in three-point defense. If Michigan State hits their open jumpers—which Purdue's scheme often concedes—we might see more points than anticipated.

Despite Michigan State's defensive prowess, winning at Mackey Arena is a different beast. Purdue is 15-3 at home this season and has won 5 straight home games against the Spartans. The Boilermakers' have the interior advantage with Trey Kaufman-Renn (13.3 PPG, 9.0 RPG) and Oscar Cluff (10.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG). Purdue also takes care of the ball, ranking 9th in the nation in turnovers (8.8 per game), whereas Michigan State struggles with giveaways (11.8 per game).

Michigan State's Divine Ugochukwu is listed as questionable with a foot injury. While not a primary scorer, his absence could test the Spartans' backcourt depth against Purdue's relentless pressure. Then, there is the "Izzo in February" factor. Michigan State historically peaks this time of year. They are 4-3 on the road but are looking for a signature win to solidify their NCAA tournament seeding.

After a shaky performance against Michigan recently, Purdue looked dominant in a 93-64 win over Indiana. However, they have struggled to cover as large favorites, going 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games.

If you are looking for some CBB props, tonight’s game features two of the best distributors in the country. Purdue’s Braden Smith averages 8.7 assists per game and Michigan State’s Jeremy Fears Jr. dishes out 9.2 per game. They rank No. 1 and 2 in the nation and will dictate the entire flow of tonight’s game.

Get free CBB Picks and CBB Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2026 CBB schedule from the YLose.com  crew, one of the industry's largest networks of premier expert CBB handicappers. YLose.com has been bringing the CBB betting community the best CBB free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best CBB moneyline and point spread odds and game totals.

FREE PICK: UNDER 142.5

These are two of the slowest-paced teams in the nation. Michigan State ranks 267th in possessions per game. Purdue is 314th. Both offenses are pretty efficient though. Purdue is second in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and MSU is 42nd. When these two get together, it’s typically a lower-scoring defensive slug-fest. The last 10 times these two have played the final combined score has been 141 or less eight times. Over those 10 games, MSU & Purdue have averaged 132.9 ppg. Nine of the last 13 games in the series have gone Under the total. MSU has gone Over in 6 of its last 7 games, but 4 of those 6 games had closing totals less than tonight’s total. 

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