Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 2/28/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 2/28/26

GONZAGA @ SAINT MARY’S (GON -2.5, 143.5)

CBB ODDS, CBB PREDICTIONS, CBB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK CBB PREVIEWS

BULLDOGS @ GAELS 2/28/26

This is the final regular-season chapter of one of the most storied rivalries in college basketball. With No. 9 Gonzaga (28-2, 16-1 WCC) set to depart for the Pac-12, tonight’s trip to Moraga is their last guaranteed appearance at the University Credit Union Pavilion. The Zags are looking to clinch the outright WCC title, while Saint Mary's (26-4, 15-2 WCC) is fighting for a share of their fourth straight crown and a boost to their NCAA Tournament seeding.

The Gaels are a perfect 14-0 at home this season and have been a covering machine in Moraga, going 10-4 against the spread (ATS) in those contests. While Gonzaga won the first meeting 73-65 in Spokane, the environment in Moraga is notoriously hostile. News reports indicate that the student section was already chanting about this matchup during their midweek win over Santa Clara.

Statistically, Saint Mary's boasts the 20th-ranked adjusted defense in the country according to KenPom. They excel at shrinking the game, playing at the 281st adjusted tempo nationally. By forcing long possessions and dominating the glass (ranking 11th in defensive rebounding percentage), they limit the number of opportunities Gonzaga's high-powered offense has to pull away. With Gonzaga dealing with a tightened rotation due to Braden Huff being out and Jalen Warley playing at roughly 50% strength with a thigh injury, the Gaels have a significant depth and health advantage at home.

History is the loudest indicator for the total in this rivalry. In the last 10 meetings between these two programs, the Under has hit in 8 of them. The clash of styles heavily favors a lower-scoring affair when the game is played in Moraga. Saint Mary's defensive blueprint is designed to draw defenders deep into the shot clock, and they rank 12th nationally in preventing free throw opportunities for opponents.

Gonzaga operates at a much faster tempo (49th nationally), but Saint Mary's has been elite at forcing teams into their slow, grinding half-court sets. The Gaels' strategy of using Andrew McKeever (3.6 offensive rebounds per game) and Paulius Murauskas to reset possessions can bleed minutes off the clock. In a game with such high emotional stakes and a hostile road environment, expect both teams to prioritize defensive discipline over transition track meets.

Saint Mary's has won seven straight games since their loss in Spokane and is coming off an emphatic 86-67 win over Santa Clara. Their interior rotation of 7-1 Harry Wessels and 7-2 Andrew McKeever provides a massive physical hurdle for a Gonzaga frontcourt that is missing Braden Huff.

Paulius Murauskas has been a double-double threat with three in his last four games, including a 32-point explosion recently. If sophomore guard Mikey Lewis continues his hot streak—averaging nearly 20 points over his last three games—the Gaels have the perimeter scoring to match Gonzaga's Mario Saint-Supery and Braeden Smith. 

Gonzaga does have some injury issues. Braden Huff is confirmed OUT, and Jalen Warley is playing through a severe thigh injury. Mark Few noted Warley is at about 50% full strength, which severely limits Gonzaga's defensive options against Saint Mary's guards Joshua Dent and Mikey Lewis.

Don’t forget the “Moraga Factor.” Saint Mary's is 14-0 at home this season. The Gaels have covered 4 of the last 5 matchups against the Zags. Gonzaga has clinched the No. 1 seed for the WCC tournament, but a win tonight gives them the outright regular-season title. Saint Mary's needs the win to secure a share of the title and improve their NCAA Tournament resume to avoid an 8/9 seed matchup.

FREE PICK: SAINT MARY'S +2.5

These are two outstanding defensive teams. Saint Mary's ranks 8th in the nation in points allowed per game (64.3). Gonzaga is 24th at 66.8. The Gaels are also 301st in the nation in possessions per game. They like to play a slower, more methodical type of game. Historically, that has been the case in this rivalry. Each of the last 8 games has gone Under the total and only twice in those 8 games has the final combined score been higher than 130 points. In the first meeting this season, Gonzaga won at home 73-65, but the Bulldogs did not cover the 8.5-point spread. Tonight in the final regular season conference meeting ever between these two teams, look for the Gaels to keep it close. Saint Mary's is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 at home.

Coach Rick Day Pass $49

BUY NOW

Ylose expert Coach Rick Bowe delivers his daily Quick Picks. The Coach continues to roll up big wins in college basketball, college football, the NFL, MLB and much more. Coach Rick offers a unique perspective to handicapping. Check out his daily free picks right here and jump on his daily Best Bets, which you can find right here at Ylose.com/coach.