Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 3/1/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 3/1/26

MICHIGAN STATE @ INDIANA (MSU -2.5, 144.5)

CBB ODDS, CBB PREDICTIONS, CBB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK CBB PREVIEWS

SPARTANS @ HOOSIERS 3/1/26

The #13 Michigan State Spartans (23-5, 13-4 Big Ten) travel to Bloomington to face the Indiana Hoosiers (17-11, 8-9 Big Ten) in a high-stakes Big Ten showdown at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. While the Spartans are the higher-ranked squad, historical trends and home-court advantage at "The Hall" make this a fascinating matchup for bettors.

While Michigan State holds a significant edge in overall efficiency—ranking #11 nationally in adjusted net rating (+27.4) compared to Indiana’s #34 (+18.7)—the historical context of this matchup in Bloomington is impossible to ignore. Indiana is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games against Michigan State and has won four of the last five straight up at Assembly Hall.

The Hoosiers already proved they can dismantle the Spartans, having beaten them 81-60 earlier this season in East Lansing. Indiana’s offense is actually slightly more efficient than Michigan State's, boasting an adjusted offensive rating of 120.8 (#38) compared to the Spartans' 119.9 (#44). With Tucker DeVries (13.6 PPG) and Lamar Wilkerson (21.0 PPG) leading the way, the Hoosiers have the perimeter scoring to challenge a Spartan defense that has shown occasional leaks against the three-ball.

Indiana is 16-4 straight up in their last 20 home games. Indiana has covered in 85.7% (6 of 7) of their last home meetings against MSU. Despite the ranking difference, the projected margin in this game is between 1 and 4 points. Expect a closer game than the one in East Lansing.

This matchup features a significant clash of styles that points toward a lower-scoring affair. Both teams play at a methodical pace. Indiana ranks 233rd in possessions per game, while Michigan State is even slower at 277th. The Spartans' identity is built on an elite defense that ranks #7 nationally in adjusted efficiency (92.5). They excel at grinding possessions down and forcing contested shots, holding opponents to just 40.1% shooting.

Furthermore, the Under has hit in four of Indiana’s last five home games and in four of the last six head-to-head meetings in Bloomington. Michigan State is particularly stout on the road, ranking 20th in points per possession allowed. With both teams likely to struggle for easy transition buckets—Indiana’s fast-break production is notably lower than MSU's—this game should be a half-court grind.

Both teams rank outside the top 250 nationally in adjusted tempo. Michigan State allows only 66.4 points per game (Ranked 23rd). The Under is 4-1 in the last five games played between these two at Assembly Hall. This is essentially "last stand" territory for the Hoosiers' postseason hopes. Indiana likely needs this win to stay on the right side of the tournament cut-line.

The matchup inside will be the deciding factor. While Michigan State’s frontcourt of Jaxon Kohler (12.1 PPG, 9.1 RPG) and Carson Cooper (10.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG) is intimidating, Indiana’s Sam Alexis has emerged as a reliable interior presence. If Indiana can simply hold their own on the glass—where they have struggled recently—their superior free-throw shooting (78.8%, #8 nationally) could be the difference-maker in a close game. 

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FREE PICK: UNDER 144.5

Neither of these teams plays all that fast. Both prefer a more methodical approach on the offensive end. Indiana ranks 233rd in possessions per game. MSU is 277th. Spartans head coach Tom Izzo’s team is built on an elite defense that ranks 7th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. MSU forces teams into longer possessions and holds teams to 40.1% shooting (21st). Indiana ranks 62nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and the Hoosiers really need this game. To keep it close, they must make every possession count. That should slow the game down which has been the case in most Indiana games as of late. The Under has cashed in 8 of the last 12 for the Hoosiers. Each of the last three in this series has gone Under and 4 of the last 5 played at Assembly Hall have gone Under the total.

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