Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 3/22/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 3/22/26

UCLA vs. UCONN (UCONN -4.5, 137.5)

CBB ODDS, CBB PREDICTIONS, CBB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK CBB PREVIEWS

BRUINS @ HUSKIES 3/22/26

The Round of 32 features a heavyweight clash between the UCLA Bruins and the UConn Huskies. This matchup pits UCLA’s top-25 adjusted offensive efficiency against a UConn squad that ranks in the top 10 nationally in Barthag rating. With a Sweet 16 berth on the line, the statistical profiles of these two teams suggest a high-level tactical battle.

UConn enters this matchup as the superior team according to advanced metrics, boasting the #9 overall Barthag rank and a top-15 adjusted defensive efficiency (#13). While UCLA is a formidable opponent (#24 in Barthag), UConn’s ability to dominate the glass and protect the rim gives them a significant edge. UConn ranks 25th nationally in Offensive Rebound Percentage (36.1%), which will put immense pressure on a UCLA defense that ranks 299th in Defensive Rebound Percentage (33.1%). 

UConn’s defense is elite at contesting shots, ranking 9th in Block Percentage (15.0%) and 9th in Effective Field Goal Percentage defense (45.9%). UCLA’s offense, while efficient, struggles with consistency inside the arc (177th in 2PT FG%). UConn’s size and interior presence should stifle UCLA's primary scoring options.

This game features two teams that prefer a methodical, half-court style of play. UCLA ranks 309th in Adjusted Tempo (64.8), while UConn is even more deliberate, ranking 319th (64.6). Both teams prioritize defensive execution over transition scoring. UCLA’s defense is disciplined, ranking 44th in adjusted efficiency, and they are particularly adept at limiting three-point opportunities (63rd in 3PT FG% defense).

UConn’s defense is even more suffocating, allowing an effective field goal percentage of just 45.9%. In a high-stakes tournament environment, expect both teams to value every possession, leading to long offensive sets and a lower total shot volume. The statistical profile of both defenses suggests that points will be at a premium.

UConn is 10-2 in close games this season and 8-3 in "Quality Games" (top-tier opponents), ranking 8th nationally in that category. They have proven time and again that they can execute in the final minutes of tight contests.

UCLA has been impressive lately, ranking 10th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency over their last 10 games, but they have struggled against elite competition, going just 5-10 in "Quality Games." UConn’s veteran leadership and championship pedigree (30-5 record) make them the definitive choice to advance.

UConn's Tarris Reed Jr. and Alex Karaban provide a frontcourt duo that is difficult to match. Reed Jr. is a force inside, shooting 64.2% on two-point attempts, while Karaban provides floor spacing (38.9% from 3PT). Reed is coming off a first-round game in which he scored 31 points and grabbed 27 rebounds.

UCLA will rely heavily on Tyler Bilodeau, who has been excellent (126.8 ORtg), but he faces a UConn defense that ranks 13th in 2PT FG% defense (45.9%). Bilodeau is questionable for this game. The matchup between UCLA's Donovan Dent (41.1% Assist Rate) and UConn's Silas Demary Jr. will be critical, if Demary plays. He missed the first-round game with an ankle injury and is questionable for tonight’s game.

UCLA is playing its best basketball of the season, evidenced by their #16 Barthag rank over the last 10 games. However, UConn has remained remarkably consistent all year, maintaining a top-10 profile since November. UConn's ability to limit turnovers (16.7% TO%) against UCLA's pressure (18.3% Defensive TO%) will determine if UCLA can generate the easy transition points they need to upset the Huskies.

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FREE PICK: UCONN -3.5

This line opened at 3.5 and you can still get it at around -125. The big thing with this game is that you need to pay attention to the injury reports for both teams. UConn point guard Silas Demary didn’t play in the first round game and is listed as questionable for this one. On the other side, UCLA’s leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau (17.6 ppg) hasn’t played since March 13 when the Bruins beat Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament. It’s a knee injury and he is also listed as questionable. Even if Bilodeau plays, he’s probably not 100 percent. UConn has the better defense (65.3 ppg), they’re the better shooting team (34th vs. 82nd in eFG%), and the better rebounding team (74th vs. 286th). 

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