Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 3/7/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 3/7/26

TEXAS TECH @ BYU (BYU -1.5, 159.5)

CBB ODDS, CBB PREDICTIONS, CBB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK CBB PREVIEWS

RED RAIDERS @ COUGARS 3/7/26

The Big 12 regular-season finale features a high-stakes clash at the Marriott Center as the Texas Tech Red Raiders (22-8, 12-5 Big 12) visit the BYU Cougars (20-10, 8-9 Big 12). This matchup carries significant weight for conference tournament seeding and NCAA Tournament resumes. Texas Tech enters as one of the most efficient teams in the country, ranked #14 in KenPom, while BYU looks to defend their home court where they have historically been dominant.

Texas Tech has been the superior team throughout the season and particularly against the spread, boasting a 17-13 ATS record compared to BYU’s 11-19. The Red Raiders have dominated this head-to-head series recently, winning all four previous meetings, including an 84-71 victory earlier this season. 

While both teams are dealing with significant injuries—Texas Tech lost JT Toppin and BYU lost Richie Saunders—the Red Raiders have adjusted better, going 3-1 since the injury compared to BYU's 1-4 slide. Texas Tech's elite three-point shooting (37.6%, ranked 24th) and ball security (14.6% TO rate) should allow them to keep this game close or even win outright.

While both teams have high-functioning offenses, the Under has been a consistent trend in this rivalry, hitting in three of the last four meetings. Texas Tech’s defense is elite, ranking 30th in adjusted efficiency (99.3), and they are particularly effective at defending the perimeter, holding opponents to 31.3% from deep. 

BYU has struggled offensively of late, scoring just 68 points in their last outing against Cincinnati. With both teams missing key scoring threats in Toppin and Saunders, and the high-pressure environment of a regular-season finale, expect a more defensive, half-court oriented battle.

The Red Raiders are ranked #23 in BartTorvik’s metrics, and their "Last 10 Games" efficiency rank is #13 in the nation, signaling they are peaking at the right time. Christian Anderson has ascended into an elite guard role, posting a 125.2 ORtg and 33.1% assist rate. BYU is reeling, having lost three straight games, including a 22-point blowout loss to Cincinnati. Given Tech's historical mastery over BYU and their superior current form, they are well-positioned to pull the road upset.

The narrative of this game is defined by the absence of Toppin (Texas Tech) and Saunders (BYU). Toppin was a double-double machine for the Red Raiders, averaging 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds. However, Texas Tech has found a new identity through Christian Anderson, who has taken over the scoring load. Conversely, BYU has struggled significantly without Saunders' versatility and defensive presence, dropping four of their last five games. The depth of Texas Tech's backcourt gives them a distinct advantage in navigating these roster limitations.

This game will be won or lost at the three-point line. Texas Tech ranks 5th nationally in three-pointers made per game (11.4) and 11th in three-point percentage (39.2%). Donovan Atwell is coming off a 19-point performance where he hit 7 threes against TCU. BYU’s defense ranks 161st in defending the arc, allowing opponents to shoot 33.3%. If Atwell and Tyler Nickel (47.5% 3PT) get hot early, BYU’s defense may not have the lateral quickness to close out effectively.

BYU is 11-3 at home this season, but they have failed to cover the spread in their last four home games. The Marriott Center is a difficult environment, but Texas Tech has already proven they can win high-level road games, recently defeating Iowa State 82-73 in Ames. The Red Raiders' ability to force turnovers (15.7% defensive TO rate) and limit second-chance points will be crucial in silencing the Provo crowd.

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FREE PICK: CHRISTIAN ANDERSON OVER 2.5 THREE-POINTERS

With the injury to Toppin, Anderson has had to pick up some of the slack. He’s done a great job along with Donovan Atwell. In the first meeting against BYU this season, Anderson scored 22 points and hit 4-of-10 three-pointers. Texas Tech ranks 5th in the nation in made three-pointers per game and they are 11th in 3PT FG%. Anderson is a big part of that averaging 3.3 made three-pointers per game. He has made at least 3 in 21 of 29 games this season. He’s coming off back-to-back games in which he failed to hit 3. The last time he did that Anderson came back in the next game and hit 6. BYU ranks 261st in opponent made threes per game. Look for Anderson (and Atwell) to have a big night.

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