Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 3/8/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 3/8/26

MICHIGAN STATE @ MICHIGAN (MICH -9.5, 149.5)

CBB ODDS, CBB PREDICTIONS, CBB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK CBB PREVIEWS

SPARTANS @ WOLVERINES 3/8/26

The in-state rivalry reaches a fever pitch today as the Michigan State Spartans travel to Ann Arbor to face the #2 ranked Michigan Wolverines. Tip-off is scheduled for 4:30 PM. Michigan enters this contest with a dominant 28-2 record, while Michigan State looks to play spoiler in this high-stakes Big Ten showdown.

Michigan is currently a heavy favorite, and the statistical profile supports them covering this spread at home. The Wolverines rank #2 nationally in Net Rating (39.38) and possess the #1 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the country according to BartTorvik. Their ability to stifle opponents is elite, holding teams to a 41.9% effective Field Goal percentage (eFG%), which also ranks #1 nationally.

Michigan State has struggled with consistency, and while they recently faced Rutgers, they now run into a Michigan squad that ranks #1 in two-point defense (39.5%) and #1 in overall defensive Barthag. Michigan's offensive efficiency is equally terrifying, ranking #5 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. With a home-court advantage where they average 93.1 points per game, the Wolverines have the firepower to win this by double digits.

While Michigan has an elite defense, their pace and offensive efficiency often push totals higher than expected. Michigan ranks #4 in Adjusted Tempo (74.4), meaning they look to get up and down the floor quickly. They average 127.7 points per 100 possessions, and their eFG% of 60.1% is the 2nd best in the nation.

In their last 10 games, Michigan's offensive efficiency has actually increased to 130.2. Michigan State will be forced to play at this elevated pace. Given that Michigan has cleared the 100-point mark in seven different games this season, they are capable of carrying the bulk of this total themselves if the Spartans can contribute even a modest 65-70 points.

Michigan has a 98.5% Barthag rating, essentially making them the most efficient team in college basketball on a per-possession basis. They have only lost two games all season and are projected by BartTorvik to have an 87% win probability in this specific matchup.

The Wolverines' interior dominance is the key mismatch. They rank #1 in two-point offensive FG percentage (64.7%) and #1 in two-point defensive FG percentage (39.5%). Michigan State simply does not have the frontcourt depth to match up with Michigan's efficiency inside.

Michigan State will have a tough time with Yaxel Lendeborg who has an ORtg of 143.4. He is shooting 78% on "Close 2" shots and 86.4% from the free-throw line. His ability to finish at the rim is a primary reason Michigan leads the nation in two-point percentage. Morez Johnson Jr. shoots 70.9% on two-point attempts and ranks high in offensive rebounding percentage (11.8%). Aday Mara is a 7'3" junior defensive eraser, posting a 12.2% block rate. He will make life difficult for any Spartan attempting to drive to the basket.

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FREE PICK: MICHIGAN 1H TEAM TOTAL OVER 37.5

Michigan State will do its best to try and slow Michigan down. At home, though, the Wolverines will control the pace of the game. Keep in mind, Michigan ranks 18th in Adjusted Tempo and they average 89.6 ppg. The Wolverines are also No. 2 in the country in 1H ppg - 44.3. In the first game against the Spartans this year, Michigan led 42-26 at the half. In Big Ten play this season, Michigan has scored at least 40 1H points in 11 games and they’ve gone Over this team total in 14 of 19 games. It’s the final regular season home game for the Wolverines and they’re on national television. 

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