Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 3/9/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 3/9/26

OREGON STATE @ GONZAGA (GON -18.5, 145.5)

CBB ODDS, CBB PREDICTIONS, CBB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK CBB PREVIEWS

BEAVERS @ BULLDOGS 3/9/26

The Oregon State Beavers will face the #10 ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs in a matchup that features a massive statistical gap between the two programs. Gonzaga enters this West Coast Conference semifinal with a 28-3 record and a top-10 ranking in both KenPom and BartTorvik metrics, while Oregon State looks to play the role of spoiler in a hostile environment.

Gonzaga is currently a heavy favorite, and the statistical profile suggests they have the firepower to cover this large spread. The Bulldogs boast the #12 adjusted offensive efficiency in the country (124.4) and a top-15 defense (95.9). Their effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 58.2% ranks 15th nationally, which creates a nightmare matchup for an Oregon State team that has struggled to find consistency. Gonzaga's ability to dominate the glass (36.5% offensive rebound rate, 36th in NCAA) and protect the rim (6.4% block rate, 10th in NCAA) should allow them to dictate the tempo and pull away early.

While Gonzaga’s defense is elite, their offensive pace and efficiency often push totals higher than expected. The Bulldogs play at a top-50 adjusted tempo (70.8), and they have shown the ability to put up massive numbers against non-elite defenses. Gonzaga has scored 90+ points in multiple games this season (e.g., 98 vs. Texas Southern, 90 vs. Creighton, 122 vs. Southern Utah). If Oregon State can contribute even a modest 60-65 points, Gonzaga’s high-octane offense, led by efficient scorers like Braden Huff and Graham Ike, should be able to push this game over the 145.5 mark. Keep in mind that Gonzaga has scored 80-plus points in 24 of 31 games this season.

With a 95.2% Barthag probability and a #10 overall ranking, the Bulldogs are statistically overwhelming in this matchup. They have a 28-3 record on the season and have remained perfect (11-0) against Q3 opponents and (8-0) against Q4 opponents. Oregon State faces an uphill battle in a venue where Gonzaga rarely falters. 

Braden Huff has been an absolute model of efficiency for the Bulldogs. He is shooting a staggering 78.1% on "Close 2" attempts and 69.7% overall from inside the arc. His 136.0 Offensive Rating makes him one of the most dangerous interior threats in the country.

Graham Ike provides the veteran presence in the paint, utilizing a 25.9% usage rate to anchor the offense. He is particularly effective at drawing fouls, with a 47.3 Free Throw Rate, and he converts at a 76% clip from the charity stripe.

Gonzaga enters this game with significant momentum, having won 17 of their last 18 games. Their only blemish in that stretch was a neutral-site loss to Michigan. Since then, they have been dominant, particularly in Spokane. The Bulldogs' offense is built on high-percentage looks. They rank 15th in the nation in eFG% and 22nd in 2P%.

Defensively, Gonzaga is equally terrifying for opponents. They rank 14th in 3PT FG% defense, holding teams to just 28.9% from deep. This is a critical stat for Oregon State, as the Beavers will likely need to hit a high volume of threes to keep pace. Furthermore, Gonzaga's 10th-ranked block percentage (6.4%) means that even if Oregon State gets to the rim, they will face elite secondary rim protection.

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FREE PICK: GONZAGA 1H TEAM TOTAL OVER 39.5

Gonzaga has been off since March 28. They lost to Saint Mary’s in their final game of the regular season. Now, they get Oregon State in a WCC semifinal. The Bulldogs beat Oregon State 81-61 back on Feb. 7. Gonzaga led at the half in that game 38-34. The Bulldogs are 15th in the nation in 1H points, averaging 41.6 for the season. Gonzaga has gone Over 39.5 in the 1H in 19 of 31 games this season. While they only got to 38 in this year’s game against Oregon State, Gonzaga scored 50 and 45 in last year’s two meetings against the Beavers. Coach Few will have his team laser-focused tonight and the Bulldogs will start fast. 

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