Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CFB Picks, CFB Free Picks, CFB Predictions 10/22/25

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CFB Picks, CFB Free Picks, CFB Predictions 10/22/25

MISSOURI STATE @ NEW MEXICO STATE (MOST -1.5, 50.5)

Missouri State travels to New Mexico State in mid-week Conference USA action. The Bears are now 3-3 on the season after defeating Middle Tennessee 22–20 on the road. New Mexico State is also 3-3 on the season, losing to Liberty 30–27 on the road in the last game.

Missouri State enters this game fresh off a close victory over Middle Tennessee, 22–20, which exposed both their strengths and weaknesses. The Bears' offense still had trouble maintaining drives, despite the effectiveness of quarterback Deuce Bailey, who threw for 278 yards and a touchdown and added a rushing score. Ramone Green Jr. produced the game's biggest play with a 76-yard reception, while running back Shomari Lawrence offered balance with 63 yards on 11 carries, demonstrating the ability to pick up chunk gains. Because of their reliance on explosive plays, the Bears have been able to keep their games close.

Missouri State's defense has been put to the test throughout the season, as evidenced by giving up almost 30 points per game. Their secondary ranks outside the top 100 nationally in passing yards allowed. The Bears have given up a number of explosive pass plays. That's not good against a New Mexico State offense that has displayed occasional bursts of efficiency.

Consistency in the red zone has been the Bears' biggest problem. All too frequently, drives have stopped inside the 20-yard line, resulting in field goals instead of touchdowns. Making the most of scoring opportunities will be crucial when playing an Aggies team that has been competitive in every game. Missouri State has demonstrated its ability to win close games, but to get one here they will need the defense to limit explosive plays and avoid turnovers on offense.

New Mexico State is hoping to recover from a 30–27 loss to Liberty, where they were unable to close out the game late despite moving the ball well. Logan Fife completed 20-of-37 for 242 yards and two touchdowns. The workhorse was running back Kadarius Calloway, who ran for 84 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. WR Tyler King had five catches for 68 yards against the Flames and he has the ability to stretch the Missouri State secondary.

The Aggies have been more consistent defensively than their record indicates, giving up only 24 points per game. That puts them in the top half of CUSA. Missouri State's running game may be neutralized by NMSU's front seven. The Aggies have limited opponents to less than 4 yards per carry. In addition to their opportunistic play, the Aggies have forced 12 turnovers in six games, ranking in the top 25 in the country. Even when the offense has faltered, they have been able to stay in games thanks to their ability to control field position.

New Mexico State can't beat itself. Particularly in close games like the Liberty loss, penalties and stalled drives were costly. The Aggies have been particularly good at home where they are 3-0 this season. They almost pulled off the upset last week against Liberty. The Aggies gave up the game-winning touchdown with 36 seconds remaining in the game.

NMSU didn't quit though as Fife was able to get the Aggies into position for a potential game-tying field goal. The attempt was missed, but it showed the resiliency of head coach Tony Sanchez's team.

TONIGHT'S FREE PICK: NEW MEXICO STATE +1.5

This line opened with New Mexico State as a 1.5- to 2-point home favorite. Now, that line has flipped, likely due to Missouri State QB Jacob Clark. Clark has been out with a knee injury and it appears he may play tonight. Regardless, the Aggies are the play at home. NMSU has won all three of their home games this season. The beat FCS Bryant in their season opener and then were underdogs (+3.5 and +1.5) in home games against Tulsa and Sam Houston. They won both outright. Yes, they have a horrible running game. The defense is nothing special, but the Aggies just took Liberty to the wire in their last game. The Aggies are historically bad, but one thing they do is play well at home. In their last 18 home games, NMSU is 13-5 ATS.

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Ylose expert Coach Rick Bowe delivers his daily Quick Picks. The Coach continues to roll up big wins in college basketball, college football, the NFL, MLB and much more. Coach Rick offers a unique perspective to handicapping. Check out his daily free picks right here and jump on his daily Best Bets, which you can find right here at Ylose.com/coach.