Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CFB Picks, CFB Free Picks, CFB Predictions 9/25/26
NAVY @ UAB (NAVY -6.5, 51.5)
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MIDSHIPMEN @ BLAZERS 9/25/26
The Navy Midshipmen look to win outright. The Midshipmen are the better team, the sharp money is firmly on their side, and the market has settled on a number that still leaves some value on the favorite. Navy is a -6.5 favorite with a moneyline around -250, and the sharp win probability model gives them a commanding edge.
Navy opened as high as -564 on the moneyline and has settled into the -233 to -256 range — a massive correction that tells you the market overreacted early before finding its true level. UAB, meanwhile, opened around +430 on the moneyline and now all the way down in the +214/+230 range.
📈 LINE MOVEMENT TELLS THE STORY
The spread has moved from Navy -11.5 to Navy -6.5, with the juice holding steady around -110 to -112 on the Navy side. That's a full five points of movement toward UAB, and the price adjustment confirms real money is backing the Blazers to keep it close.
The total has also dropped from 54.5 to 51.5, suggesting the market expects a lower-scoring, grind-it-out game — exactly the kind of contest Navy's style thrives in.
⚠️ REASONS FOR CAUTION
Starting quarterback Braxton Woodson is out with an ankle injury, leaving backup Jackson Gutierrez to run the offense. While the option system is plug-and-play, Gutierrez is making his first start and will face pressure. Gutierrez came in against FAU after Woodson’s injury and went 6-for-12 passing for 100 yards and two touchdowns and also ran 7 times for 75 yards and another score.
The Blazers have allowed just 166 passing yards the last two weeks while limiting explosive plays, and they've seen this Navy Hybrid Option/Wing-T attack for four consecutive seasons.
Navy also has some secondary issues which could give the Blazers an advantage on offense. The Mids grade out at 125th nationally in explosive passes allowed and 124th in pass play success rate, which UAB can exploit. Navy has allowed nearly 300 passing yards (296.5) per game so far this season.
🏈 WHY NAVY WINS
Navy's offense is explosive when it's rolling. The Midshipmen are averaging 36.0 points per game and have been one of the top teams in the American Conference over the last couple of years. Even with backup quarterback Gutierrez stepping in for the injured Braxton Woodson, this is an option offense where quarterbacks are more plug-and-play — the system is the star.
UAB can't mount comebacks. The Blazers have shown a systematic inability to mount comebacks this season when projected as underdogs. They have found themselves in that spot twice already, dropping both games. There are no signs suggesting that trend will change Friday.
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