Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 4/27/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 4/27/26

ST. LOUIS @ PITTSBURGH (PIT -136, 8)

MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK MLB PREVIEWS

CARDINALS @ PIRATES 4/27/26

The Pirates enter this contest as home favorites, and the statistical profile supports a play on the Pittsburgh side. The Pirates are starting Mason Montgomery, who has been effective in his role as a reliever this season, posting a 3.97 ERA. The Pirates won his only start this season, and he currently boasts a 32% strikeout rate, which could pose problems for the top of the Cardinals lineup that has struggled with consistency.

The Pirates are expected to use Montgomery as an opener for Wilber Dotel. Dotel struggled at the Triple-A level this year with a 6.28 ERA and a high walk rate (4.4 BB/9). Dotel has spent five years in the Pirates minor league system and has a career minor league ERA of 4.21. He’s pitched 2.2 innings out of the Pirates bullpen this season and allowed just 1 ER. 

The Cardinals counter with Dustin May, who has struggled some this season with a 5.84 ERA. While May has improved his control—lowering his walks per nine innings from 3.8 last year to 1.8 this season—his strikeout rate has dipped to 7.2 K/9, leaving him more vulnerable to contact. Still, May has pitched very well as of late with three straight outings of allowing just 1 ER. All three starts were wins for May who is now 3-2 on the season.

An issue for the Cardinals is the bullpen. Once May is done, he’ll turn it over to a Cards bullpen that ranks 25th in the league with a 5.23 ERA. The Pirates relief corps ranks 7th in MLB with a 3.27 ERA. With Pittsburgh holding an 8-5 record at home and the Cardinals bullpen issues, the Pirates are the definitive choice here.

THE GAME TOTAL 

While PNC Park is generally neutral in terms of Ballpark Factor, tonight’s pitching matchup suggests a higher-scoring affair. Dustin May’s 5.84 ERA and the Cardinals' 27th-ranked team ERA (4.94) indicate that Pittsburgh should have plenty of opportunities to cross the plate. On the other side, the Pirates are expected to use Dotel in a bulk relief role behind Montgomery. Dotel struggled at the Triple-A level this season with a 6.28 ERA and a high walk rate (4.4 BB/9).

Both teams have shown a tendency toward the Over recently when these specific pitching conditions met. The Cardinals have seen the Over hit in 14 of their 26 games this season, and with both bullpens showing signs of vulnerability—specifically the Cardinals' 37.5% inherited runner scoring rate—the Over 8 provides excellent value. There are a number of sportsbooks that have already moved the line to 8.5.

TOP PLAYER PROP RECOMMENDATIONS

Masyn WinnMasyn Winn: Over 0.5 Hits (+143) ⚾️

Masyn Winn has been a spark plug for the Cardinals' offense and is currently in the midst of an elite stretch. Over his last 10 games, he has recorded at least one hit 9 times, averaging 1.5 hits per game. His performance on the road is even more impressive, hitting the Over 0.5 Hits in 77.78% of road games this season.

Winn faces a left-handed starter in Montgomery. Winn has historically performed well in these matchups, and his recent 80% hit rate over the last 5 games suggests he is seeing the ball exceptionally well. Given his 1.22 mean hits per game on the road this season, Winn Over 0.5 Hits at -175 is worthy of consideration.

On the Pittsburgh side, Nick Gonzales has been incredibly reliable at the plate. He has hit the over on his hits prop in each of his last 5 games and 8 of his last 10. He currently averages 1.4 hits per game in that 10-game span, showing significant consistency.

Gonzales has a strong history against the Cardinals, hitting this over in 66.67% of his career matchups against them. He faces Dustin May, who has allowed 9.0 hits per nine innings this season. With Gonzales hitting at a 68% clip for the season and showing elite recent form, this is another player prop that merits a look.

NRFI?

We are not big on NRFIs, but if there is one today the Cardinals-Pirates matchup can make a solid case. 

While May has a high ERA, he has a 62.2% clean first-inning rate over the last three seasons. Pirates starter Mason Montgomery hasn’t allowed a run in any of his last 7 appearances and that includes the one start he made against Washington on April 15. 

The Cardinals have failed to score in the first inning in 17 of their 26 games (65.4%). The Pirates have been held scoreless in the first in 16 of 27 games (59.3%). 

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FREE PICK: OVER 8

Wilber Dotel is a solid prospect for the Pirates, but he does have a tendency to walk too many batters. That is one reason why his career minor league ERA is 4.21. It’s also why his ERA this season in Triple-A is 6.28. The Cardinals can hit and they rank just outside the top-10 in MLB in scoring. Dustin May has had 3 straight excellent starts. He pitched at least 5.1 innings and gave up 1 ER in each start. All three were wins for May and the Cardinals. I wouldn’t expect that to last all season. May doesn’t strike out a ton of batters (K rate is 18.9%) and he gives up a lot of hard contact (46.8% HH Rate). He’ll likely only pitch 5 to 6 innings and then the St. Louis bullpen takes over. The Cards relievers have the 6th-worst ERA in MLB at 5.25. This line will likely close at 8.5. Many sportsbooks have already moved to that number.

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