Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 5/11/26
- rbowe7447
- 2 hours ago
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SAN FRANCISCO @ LA DODGERS (LAD -194, 9.5)
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COACH RICK MLB PREVIEWS
GIANTS @ DODGERS 5/11/26
With Mookie Betts making his highly anticipated return to the Dodgers lineup and the Giants looking to snap a cold streak on the road, there's a lot to unpack. The late-night rivalry clash between the Giants and Dodgers at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is the highlight of the Monday slate. With the return of Betts and a fascinating pitching matchup between the highly-touted Roki Sasaki and the emerging Trevor McDonald, there are several high-value opportunities across the moneyline, spread, and player prop markets.
The Dodgers (24-16) enter this contest as strong favorites, and for good reason. The headline story is the return of Betts, who has been sidelined since early April with an oblique strain. His presence at the top of the order transforms a lineup that already ranks 3rd in MLB in runs scored (5.01 per game) and 2nd in walks. The Dodgers have been dominant at home this season with a 13-8 record, and their bullpen has been elite recently, posting a 0.84 ERA over the last week.
While Dodgers starter Roki Sasaki has struggled with a 5.97 ERA, he faces a Giants offense that has been ice-cold. San Francisco ranks 26th in hits and has struggled significantly on the road (6-12). Furthermore, the Dodgers' offense ranks in the top 6 in almost every major category, including RBIs, runs scored, and OPS. With the emotional boost of Betts' return and the statistical advantage of the Dodgers' relief corps, Los Angeles is the definitive side here.
Don’t automatically count the Giants out as covering the +1.5 run line offers some value. San Francisco starter Trevor McDonald has been a revelation, posting a 1.29 ERA and a microscopic 0.286 WHIP. In his only start on May 4th against San Diego, he went 7.0 innings, allowing just one run. McDonald has shown the ability to neutralize an offense, generating less than one hit against per inning.
The Dodgers have struggled to cover spreads recently, going 4-6 in their last ten games. Statistical models project a tight margin for this contest, which aligns with McDonald's ability to keep games close. Given that Sasaki has been prone to giving up runs (allowing 3 ER in each of his last three starts), the Giants are well-positioned to keep this within a single run, even if they don't pull off the upset.
BEST PLAYER PROPS TONIGHT
Rafael Devers of the Giants has been one of the most consistent hitters in this lineup. Over his last 10 games, he has recorded at least one hit in 9 of those contests, averaging 1.1 hits per game. His recent form is even more impressive, hitting the Over 0.5 Hits in 4 of his last 5 games.
Devers has also found success against the Dodgers this season, recording a hit in 66.67% of his matchups against them. While he hasn't faced Sasaki specifically, his ability to put the ball in play—evidenced by his .220 wOBA in career matchups against similar power righties—makes this attractive at -160.
Andy Pages has been a spark plug for the Dodgers' offense and currently carries a massive hit rate. He has recorded a hit in 9 of his last 10 games (90%) and 13 of his last 15 (86.67%). He is currently averaging 1.8 hits per game over his last five outings, showing he is seeing the ball exceptionally well right now.
Pages has a career .333 batting average against Trevor McDonald in their limited matchups. While McDonald offers a challenge, Pages' current momentum and the protection he'll receive in a lineup featuring Ohtani, Freeman, and now Betts, should provide him with plenty of pitches to drive. The books would agree, pricing Pages Over 0.5 Hits prop at -190.
Betting on Betts to score in his return is a play on both his talent and his role in the Dodgers' high-efficiency offense. Before his injury, Betts was hitting the Over on his Runs prop 75% of the time this season. He is expected to slot right back into the top of the order, where he will be driven in by the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman.
The Dodgers rank 2nd in the league in walks, and Betts' elite eye (0.8 BB/game) ensures he gets on base even when he isn't hitting. Against a Giants defense that ranks in the bottom five in defensive efficiency, any ball in play or walk for Betts has a high probability of turning into a run.
RECENT TRENDS
The Dodgers have ruled this rivalry, winning 10 of the 15 meetings. LA is currently tied with San Diego for the top spot in the NL West at 24-16. The Dodgers have cooled off recently, winning just 4 of their last 11 games.
The Giants have been even cooler, winning just 3 times in their last 12 games. San Francisco owns the worst offense in MLB, scoring just 3.25 runs per game. That number drops to 3.11 when playing on the road. Eight of the Giants last 12 games have gone Under the total. Four of the last 5 against the Dodgers have also gone Under.
The Dodgers have won 5 of the last 6 when hosting the Giants at Dodger Stadium. Ironically, the only loss was in a game played last season. McDonald pitched for the Giants, allowing just 1 ER in 6 innings to pick up the 3-1 San Francisco victory.
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FREE PICK: GIANTS +1.5
McDonald has 3 MLB starts under his belt. All 3 were Giants wins and one of them was last September against the Dodgers. McDonald pitched 6 innings, allowed 6 hits and 1 ER in a 3-1 Giants victory. In his first start this season, McDonald went 7 innings, allowed just two hits, struck out 8, and gave up 1 ER as the Giants beat the Padres 3-2. Sasaki starts for the Dodgers and he sports a 5.97 ERA. He’s allowed multiple home runs in each of his last 5 starts and has given up at least 3 ER in 4 of those 5. Sasaki has yet to face the Giants and SF isn’t great at the plate, but McDonald can keep them in this one.
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