Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 5/25/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 5/25/26

SEATTLE @ ATHLETICS (SEA -118, 10)

MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK MLB PREVIEWS

MARINERS @ ATHLETICS 5/25/26

The Seattle Mariners (25-28) head to Sutter Health Park to open a three-game series against the Athletics (26-26). This matchup features a fascinating pitching duel between veteran right-hander Luis Castillo and the Athletics' Aaron Civale. With both teams hovering near .500 and looking for momentum, I’ve analyzed the statistical mismatches, recent trends, and news narratives to bring you the best bets for tonight’s clash.

The Athletics present significant value as home underdogs tonight. While the Mariners are sending Luis Castillo to the mound, his recent form has been a major concern. Castillo is 1-3 with a 6.50 ERA in May, struggling specifically with the long ball, having surrendered six home runs in his last six appearances. Conversely, Aaron Civale has been a steady force for the Athletics, posting a 5-1 record with a 3.31 ERA this season. The Athletics have shown resilience in Civale's starts, going 4-3 when they are the moneyline underdog.

The Mariners will employ an interesting pitching strategy that they used last Tuesday. Bryce Miller got the start. He was replaced in the sixth after 72 pitches. Jose Ferrer closed out the inning and Castillo started the seventh. He ended up pitching 2.1 innings and left after a walk and a hit batter in the ninth. Before he left the game, the Mariners led 1-0. They would go on to lose 2-1.

Tonight, the Mariners wlll reverse the order of their piggyback strategy. Castillo gets the start and Miller will serve as the primary pitcher out of the bullpen. Will it work this time?

GAME TOTAL RECOMMENDATION

While the Mariners' pitching has struggled recently, their offense has been equally stagnant, ranking 22nd in the league with just 4.04 runs per game. They also lead the league in strikeouts, which plays right into the hands of a disciplined pitcher like Civale. The Athletics' offense is middle-of-the-pack (14th in MLB), and while Castillo has been giving up runs, he still maintains a high strikeout rate (25.9% career K rate vs. this roster). Historical trends for this matchup lean toward the Under, with both teams going 4-6 O/U in their last 10 games respectively.

STRONG PLAYER PROPS TONIGHT

Nick Kurtz has been the definition of consistency for the Athletics' lineup. He has recorded at least one hit in each of his last five games and 80% of his last 10. More importantly, he has a perfect 100% hit rate (3-for-3) against the Mariners in 2026. While his career average against Castillo specifically is .200, his current season form (.290 BA) and high plate appearance volume (239 PA) make him a lock to find grass tonight. Back Kurtz to get at least one hit (Over 0.5 Hits).

If you are looking for another Over 0.5 Hits prop, Carlos Cortes is the play. Despite the -220 odds, Cortes has hit this Over in 100% of his last five games and 80% of his last 10. He has been an absolute menace against Seattle this season, hitting the Over in all three matchups with a staggering 2.33 mean hit rate. He is currently batting .350 on the season, and his ability to make contact against right-handed pitching makes this a strong play.

Civale is a workhorse who consistently pitches deep into games. He has cleared this 14.5-out line (4.2 innings) in each of his last five starts and 90% of his last 10. Against a Mariners offense that strikes out at the highest rate in baseball (472 times this season), Civale should have no trouble navigating through the 5th inning. He averaged 16.0 outs in his previous start against Seattle this year, and with the Athletics' bullpen having been taxed recently, expect manager Mark Kotsay to let Civale eat as many innings as possible.

Castillo isn’t having the best of seasons and the data shows he is currently vulnerable. He has allowed 5 or more hits in 7 of his last 10 starts and 80% of his starts when pitching on the road. The Athletics' offense has been surprisingly potent at home, and Castillo's WHIP has ballooned recently due to his inability to limit hard contact. In his lone start against the Athletics this season, he surrendered 5 hits, and given his current struggle with home runs (6 in his last 6 games), the A's are likely to put several balls in play tonight. Take Castillo Over 4.5 Hits at -130.

KEY MATCHUPS & NEWS

Mariners manager Dan Wilson has officially moved Luis Castillo into the "opener" role for tonight, pushing Bryce Miller back. This is a desperate attempt to fix a rotation that has seen the Mariners lose six of their last nine games. As mentioned earlier, Miller will come in out of the bullpen at some point tonight. 

News reports highlight that Castillo has walked two or more batters in six of his last seven outings. This lack of command, combined with his home run issues, makes him a risky bet for Seattle fans.

The Athletics are playing at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento. While they are only 10-12 at home, they have been much more competitive recently, winning four of their last six games overall at their home park.

The Mariners are missing catcher Cal Raleigh (oblique), which significantly weakens their defensive framing and offensive power. The Athletics are without shortstop Jacob Wilson, but have seen Nick Kurtz step up in a major way to fill the offensive void.

Get free MLB Picks and MLB Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2026 MLB schedule from the YLose.com  crew, one of the industry's largest networks of premier expert MLB handicappers. YLose.com has been bringing the MLB betting community the best MLB free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best MLB moneyline and point spread odds and game totals.

FREE PICK: AARON CIVALE OVER 14.5 OUTS

Civale has pitched at least 5 innings in 6 straight starts and in 9 of his 10 starts this season. He even went 5 innings in his last start, a game in which he gave up 3 HRs. Civale has started 7 games against the Mariners in his career. He pitched at least 5 innings in all of them, including the one he made on April 22 this season. He pitched 5.1 innings and allowed 3 ER in a game that Seattle lost late. The A’s are a bottom-10 team in strikeouts, so Civale should be able to get through the Seattle order without giving up too much damage. If he can avoid early home runs, he should have no problem getting 5 innings in for the seventh consecutive game.

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