Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 6/25/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 6/25/26

ARIZONA @ ST. LOUIS (STL -136, 9)

MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK MLB PREVIEWS

DIAMONDBACKS @ CARDINALS 6/25/26

The Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals continue their series this Thursday at Busch Stadium. After Arizona won their previous matchup 9-4, the Cardinals are looking to bounce back behind a young arm, while the Diamondbacks counter with their established ace.

The Cardinals enter this matchup as slight home favorites, and the market is showing significant confidence in them despite yesterday's loss. While Arizona's offense was explosive in the previous game, St. Louis has been a resilient home team. The pitching matchup features Michael McGreevy, who has shown flashes of dominance in his recent starts, particularly in maintaining a high strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Arizona's Zac Gallen is a formidable opponent, but his recent form has been uncharacteristically shaky. Over his last five starts, Gallen has struggled to pitch deep into games, which puts a heavy burden on a Diamondbacks bullpen that has been taxed recently. With the Cardinals' lineup looking to capitalize on Gallen's recent command issues, the value lies with the home team.

TOP PLAYER PROPS

McGreevy has been a consistent source of strikeouts recently, making this low line of 2.5 look like one of the strongest plays on the board. McGreevy has cleared this 2.5 mark in 60% of his games this season (9 out of 15 starts). More importantly, his long-term trends show he is finding his rhythm; he has hit the over on this line in 65% of his last 20 games.

The Diamondbacks' lineup, while potent, has shown a tendency to swing and miss against right-handed pitchers with good movement. McGreevy averages 3.53 strikeouts per game this season, nearly a full strikeout above this line. When playing at Busch Stadium, he maintains a solid 57.14% hit rate for the Over. Given his average of 3.2 strikeouts over his last five games, he only needs a standard performance to clear this hurdle.

While it may seem counterintuitive to take the Under on an ace like Zac GallenZac Gallen, the data suggests he is currently in a significant slump regarding his swing-and-miss stuff. Gallen has failed to reach 4 strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 games (an 80% failure rate for the over). His season-long over hit rate is a lowly 37.5%, and that number remains identical when he is pitching on the road.

The Cardinals' hitters have been disciplined at the plate recently, ranking in the top half of the league in avoiding strikeouts over the last two weeks. Gallen averaged only 2.4 strikeouts per game over his last five outings, which is well below the 3.5 line set for tonight. At plus money, betting against Gallen's current form provides excellent analytical value.

GAME TOTAL

While Arizona put up 9 runs by themselves yesterday, historical trends for these two teams following high-scoring games often point toward a defensive adjustment. Busch Stadium is playing as a neutral-to-pitcher-friendly environment tonight. The Cardinals' bullpen is relatively fresh compared to Arizona's, and if McGreevy can provide 5-6 solid innings, this game is likely to stay under the high total of 9.0.

The "Under" has been a profitable trend for St. Louis when facing right-handed starters at home this month. With Gallen likely pitching more cautiously after his recent struggles and McGreevy focusing on efficiency, expect a tighter, lower-scoring affair than the previous night's blowout.

NEWS & INJURY IMPACT

The Diamondbacks continue to deal with a depleted pitching staff. With Michael Soroka, Ryne Nelson, and Corbin Burnes all on the IL, the pressure on Gallen to perform is immense. The absence of A.J. Puk in the bullpen also limits their late-game options if the starter exits early.

The Cardinals are monitoring Bryan Torres and Sem Robberse, who are both listed as Day-To-Day. However, the core of their lineup remains intact. The Cardinals have emphasized a "bounce-back" mentality in the clubhouse after yesterday's defensive lapses, suggesting a high level of focus for tonight's divisional clash.

Get free MLB Picks and MLB Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2026 MLB schedule from the YLose.com  crew, one of the industry's largest networks of premier expert MLB handicappers. YLose.com has been bringing the MLB betting community the best MLB free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best MLB moneyline and point spread odds and game totals.

FREE PICK: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 3+

Both starting pitchers are going to give up runs. Zac Gallen has a 6.10 ERA, which is what happens when you give up 44 runs over your last 51 innings pitched. Michael McGreevy has been extremely lucky this season. St. Louis has lost 5 of his last 6 starts and he’s just 3-6 on the season, but his ERA is a respectable 3.35. But, look at the underlying numbers. The xERA is 5.69. His K rate is just 16 percent. The Hard Hit rate is 40 percent and his LOB% is 82. Arizona does not hit RHP well (bottom 2 or 3 in most categories), but they are averaging 5 runs per game in their last 5 against a right-handed starter. Plus, both teams routinely score 3 runs in a game. Arizona has scored 3+ in 7 of its last 10 and in 64% (51-of-80) of games this season. The DBacks have also scored 3+ in 67% of their road games. St. Louis has scored at least 3 runs in 9 of its last 10, 19 of its last 20, and 56 of its 78 games (72%) this season. Also, in 8 of the last 9 games played between these two teams, both teams scored at least 3 runs.

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