Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 7/21/25
- rbowe7447
- Jul 21
- 2 min read
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND (CLE -135, 8.5)
GUARDIANS ML
This is an interesting pitching matchup. Baltimore will start Tomoyuki Sugano against Cleveland's Tanner Bibee. Sugano is 7-5 and has a 4.44 ERA for the season. Somehow, the Orioles have managed to win 4 of Sugano's last 5 starts despite the fact that the right-hander has given up 22 earned runs over 24 innings in those 5 games.
Sugano has repeatedly defied his expected numbers this season. While the ERA is below 5, the xERA is 5.80. He doesn't miss a lot of bats. Sugano's K rate is just 14 percent, but he doesn't give up a lot of hard contact (33% hard hit rate).
Bibee has been an elite level starter for the Guardians, but this year he just hasn't clicked. He's only 5-9 and his ERA is 4.29. But, unlike Sugano, Bibee's expected numbers tell a different story. His xERA is 3.64 and some of that positive regression can be seen in the Guardians winning each of his last two starts.
Bibee is also much better at Progressive Field. This season, his home ERA is 2.57. Bibeel will want some revenge for a start at Baltimore earlier this season. He gave up 6 earned runs in 5.2 innings in a Cleveland loss.
The Guardians have found some offense recently. Cleveland has won 8 of its last 10 games. That includes a sweep of the Astros in Houston. The Guardians put up 4 or more runs in 9 of the 10 games and averaged nearly 6 runs (5.9) per game.
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