Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 7/29/25
- rbowe7447
- Jul 29
- 2 min read
SEATTLE @ ATHLETICS (SEA -115, 10.5)
OVER 10.5
It's another game at Sutter Health Park, which means the Over is always in play. Totals at Sutter are typically 10 or higher and still the Over is 28-22-2 in the A's home ballpark. The pitching matchup also helps seal the deal on the Over.
Logan Evans goes for the Mariners. He is the perfect candidate to examine when talking about negative regression among pitchers. Evans is 4-3 with a 3.64 ERA. The Mariners have won his last two starts, leaving the average sports bettor thinking that he's a solid pitcher to back.
His FIP is just the first clue as to the coming regression for Evans. With a FIP of 4.82 and an xERA of 5.51, you know that something is up with Evans. Dig deeper and you'll find that his strikeout rate is only 16.8%. His hard hit rate if 47.1% and his barrel rate is 10.6%. All those numbers point to Evans giving up more earned runs in the future.
On the other side, Luis Severino has had serious problems pitching at home. His home ERA is 6.68. Opponents bat .302 off Severino at Sutter Health Park. Even when he limits earned runs at home, Severino still gets whacked. In his last home start, you'll note that he gave up just 1 ER. Looks good, right? Yeah, until you look and see that he gave up a total of 5 runs to Toronto in a 7-6 Blue Jays win. That game also went Over the total.
In Severino's last 10 starts, the Over is 8-1-1. In the pitcher-friendly environment of Sutter Health Park, these two teams will unload tonight.
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