Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 9/23/26
ARIZONA @ COLORADO (ARI -162, 11.5)
MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS
COACH RICK MLB FREE PICKS
DIAMONDBACKS @ ROCKIES 9/23/26
This is a game where the market, the sharp money, and the motivation factor all point in the same direction — and it's toward the road favorite. Arizona is fighting for its playoff life while Colorado has already hit 100 losses, and the pitching matchup tilts toward the D-Backs despite Merrill KellyMerrill Kelly's rough surface numbers. Let me break down exactly why Arizona is the side.
💰 BACK THE DBACKS
The Diamondbacks are the play at -156. The sharp money agrees — the sharp win percentage on this game is 59.14% to Arizona against 40.86% for Colorado. The line has moved toward Arizona all day, opening around -100 and closing near -156 on the consensus, with Kalshi moving from -156 to -150 and Polymarket from -100 to -147. That's the professional money landing on the road favorite.
The case starts with the stakes. Arizona is four games out of a playoff spot in the NL wild card race and has won three straight, including a 7-2 statement win in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. The D-Backs are 7-4 against Colorado this season with five wins by two or more runs. Colorado, meanwhile, hit the 100-loss mark on Tuesday night and is poised to finish with the worst record in MLB. The Rockies' offense ranks dead last in wRC+ (91.07, 29th) despite playing half its games at Coors Field.
The head-to-head history backs Arizona up. Over the last 10 completed meetings, the Diamondbacks are 6-4 straight up with an average score of 5.2 to 2.9. That's a nearly 2.5-run average margin in Arizona's favor, and it reflects the gap between these two clubs.
📊 WHY COLORADO IS VULNERABLE HERE
The Rockies' pitching staff is the worst in baseball, and it's not particularly close. Colorado ranks 30th in runs allowed (904), 30th in ERA (5.57), 29th in FIP (4.84), 30th in WHIP (1.53), and 30th in K/9 (7.04). This is a staff that gets hit hard and doesn't miss bats.
Mason Adams gets the ball for Colorado, making just his sixth appearance of the season. His 5.09 ERA ranks in the 28th percentile of qualified pitchers, and his 6.18 FIP sits in the 8th percentile — meaning his surface numbers actually flatter him. His 5.84 xERA ranks in the 10th percentile, and his 1.65 WHIP sits in the 13th percentile. He's allowed a .295 batting average against (10th percentile) and a .554 hard-hit rate (0th percentile — the worst mark in baseball). His home splits are even uglier: a 9.00 home ERA, a 2.22 home WHIP, and a .410 home batting average against. This is a pitcher who has been overmatched at the major league level, and Coors Field amplifies every weakness.
The Diamondbacks have the bats to punish him. Arizona ranks 16th in runs scored (693), 19th in wOBA (.314), and 21st in OPS (.713). While those aren't elite numbers, they're far better than what Colorado has shown, and the D-Backs' lineup has been heating up — Nolan Arenado is hitting .400 over his last 15 games with 7 home runs and an .836 slugging percentage, including a 421-foot homer in Tuesday's win.
📈 THE TOTAL: LEAN UNDER 11.5
The total sits at 11.5, and the sharp money is nearly split — 51.48% on the over, 48.52% on the under. That's essentially a coin flip, which tells you the market has this number priced correctly. I'm not making a strong play here, but if you're looking for a lean, the under has real merit.
Coors Field is the most hitter-friendly park in baseball — the overall park factor is 112 (1st in MLB), with runs at 125 and hits at 117. That's why the total is so high. But there's a case for the under: Merrill KellyMerrill Kelly has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last five starts, and the weather is cooling down in Denver as fall arrives. The books may have juiced this total a bit too high given the venue and the pitching matchup. If forced to pick, I'd lean slightly under.
🎯 PLAYER PROPS WORTH A LOOK
Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 Hits
Arenado is the hottest hitter in this Arizona lineup and he's returning to Coors Field, where he spent the first eight years of his career. He's cleared this line in 100% of his last five games, 80% of his last 10, and 66.67% of his last 15. He's hitting .247 on the season with a .227 xAVG, but he's been much better against right-handed pitching (.241 average) and he's hitting .400 over his last 15 games with 7 home runs. Against the Rockies this season, he's hitting .700 over 10 at-bats. The price is steep, but the form and the venue make this a strong play.
Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 Hits
Perdomo has been one of the most consistent hitters in this Arizona lineup. He's cleared this line in 80% of his last five games, 70% of his last 10, and 66.67% of his last 15. He's hitting .256 on the season with a .257 xAVG — one of the better marks in baseball — and he's been solid on the road (.254 average). Against right-handed pitching, he's hitting .253. He's also hitting .556 against the Rockies this season over 9 at-bats. The price is steep, but the hit rate and consistency justify it.
Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 Bases
Moreno has been excellent recently. He's cleared this line in 60% of his last five games, 60% of his last 10, and 60% of his last 15. He's hitting .481 slugging on the season with a .449 xSLG — one of the best marks in baseball — and he's been solid on the road (.520 slugging). Against right-handed pitching, he's slugging .502. He's also hitting .500 against the Rockies this season over 8 at-bats. The price is reasonable for a player with his power profile.
Merrill Kelly Over 3.5 Strikeouts
Kelly has been solid in the strikeout department. He's cleared this line in 80% of his last five starts, 70% of his last 10, and 60% of his last 15. He's averaging 5.4 strikeouts over his last five starts and 4.6 over his last 10. Against the Rockies this season, he's averaging 2.5 strikeouts over 2 starts, which is a concern, but his recent form and the plus-money price make this a solid value play.
⚠️ INJURY NOTES
The Diamondbacks are banged up. Tyler Locklear, Ryan Thompson, A.J. Puk, Andrew Saalfrank, and Cristian Mena are all on the 60-day IL. For the Rockies, Willi Castro is on the 10-day IL, while Chase Dollander, Welinton Herrera, McCabe Brown, RJ Petit, Pierson Ohl, and Kris Bryant are all on the 60-day IL.
🏆 THE VERDICT
Diamondbacks moneyline (-156) is the best bet on the board. Arizona has the better team, the better starting pitcher in this matchup, and the sharp money is on their side. The Rockies have already lost 100 games and are starting a pitcher with a 5.09 ERA and a 6.18 FIP. The D-Backs are fighting for their playoff lives and have won three straight.
Get free MLB Picks and MLB Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2026 MLB schedule from the YLose.com crew, one of the industry's largest networks of premier expert MLB handicappers. YLose.com has been bringing the MLB betting community the best MLB free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best MLB moneyline and point spread odds and game totals.
FREE PICK: DIAMONDBACKS ML
Ylose expert Coach Rick Bowe delivers his daily Quick Picks. The Coach continues to roll up big wins in college basketball, college football, the NFL, MLB and much more. Coach Rick offers a unique perspective to handicapping. Check out his daily free picks right here and jump on his daily Best Bets, which you can find right here at Ylose.com/coach.
