Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 9/3/26
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- 14 hours ago
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ATHLETICS @ SEATTLE (SEA -223, 7.5)
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ATHLETICS @ MARINERS 9/3/26
This is the series opener at T-Mobile Park, and it's a matchup that pits a Mariners club fighting to stay relevant in the AL West against an Athletics team that's been eliminated from contention for weeks. The market has Seattle as a heavy home favorite — the consensus moneyline sits around -195 to -210 depending on the book — and the sharp money is firmly on the Mariners at 65.9% win probability. But the real story here is the starting pitching matchup, which carries more volatility than the price suggests.
THE PITCHING MATCHUP
Jack Perkins (RHP, Oakland) is the established quantity, and that's not a compliment. His season numbers are brutal across the board:
Metric Perkins Percentile
ERA 6.42 11th
WHIP 1.49 25th
HR/9 1.70 17th
K% 25.2% —
Perkins has allowed 100 hits, 42 walks, and 18 home runs in just 95.1 innings this season. He's 3-10 with a 6.42 ERA, and when he starts, the Athletics are 2-10 against the spread. As a moneyline underdog in seven Perkins starts this season, Oakland has lost every single time
But here's the counterweight: Perkins can miss bats. His 109 strikeouts in 95.1 innings (25.2% K rate) is genuinely elite, and his FIP of 4.86 suggests he's been unlucky relative to his ERA. He's also strung together consecutive quality starts — 5.0 IP and 1 ER against both Baltimore and Houston in his last two outings. The talent is in there; the consistency just isn't.
Kade Anderson (LHP, Seattle) is the wild card. He's making just his third major-league start tonight, with a grand total of 10.0 innings of MLB experience. His numbers are a mixed bag:
Metric Anderson Percentile
ERA 4.50 40th
WHIP 1.30 56th
xERA 2.29 97th
K% 19.5% —
The xERA of 2.29 is fascinating — it suggests Anderson has been significantly better than his surface numbers indicate. But his 12.2% walk rate is a red flag, and his pitch count is the central variable. His last start against Toronto on August 29 ended after just 4.1 innings, and his start before that went 5.2 innings. He's averaging roughly 5.0 innings per outing on clear workload management for a 22-year-old.
The key difference: no Athletics batter has any career plate appearance data against Anderson. That unfamiliarity cuts both ways, but it typically favors the pitcher who's seen the opposing hitters' weaknesses. Anderson gets the benefit of T-Mobile Park, which ranks as the 29th-best pitcher's park in baseball with an overall factor of just 92 (100 is league average). Runs are suppressed there to 85% of league average — one of the most extreme environments in the sport.
GAME ANALYSIS
The case for Seattle is straightforward: the Athletics are the worst team in baseball by run differential at -194 over 140 games, sitting at 54-86 overall. They're sending a pitcher with a 6.42 ERA against a Mariners lineup that has already seen him — and the career BvP numbers are ugly for Oakland.
Randy Arozarena in particular has torched Perkins: 2-for-4 with 2 home runs and a 1.022 wOBA lifetime. That's a 2.500 OPS in 4 career plate appearances. Arozarena's current form backs that up — he's posted an .893 OPS over the last 7 days and an .827 OPS over the last 28 days, with a season OPS of .820 against right-handed pitching.
Cal Raleigh is the other name to watch. He's hit 6 home runs over his last 10 games with a 1.017 OPS over the last 7 days, and Perkins is allowing 1.70 home runs per 9 innings in 2026. Raleigh and Arozarena are exactly the power profiles that punish that kind of rate.
The Athletics are also decimated by injuries. Brent Rooker, Jacob Wilson, Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, and Luis Severino are all on the 60-day IL, and Shea Langeliers is on the 10-day. That's their entire offensive core and their best starter. The lineup that takes the field tonight is a shell of what it was in April.
The one caution: Anderson's tiny sample size. He's only thrown 10.0 innings in the majors, and his 12.2% walk rate could turn this into a traffic game. But the structural advantages — the park factor, the injury-depleted Athletics lineup, and Perkins' documented home-run issues — all point to Seattle.
The better play is on the Mariners run line. The sharp ATS data shows Seattle with a 46.1% win percentage against the spread at -1.5, which is lower than the moneyline edge — but the plus-money price compensates for that.
The logic here is the same as the moneyline, but with a higher ceiling. Perkins has shown the capacity to implode early: his August 7 start produced 5 ER in just 3.0 innings, and his August 12 start gave up 6 ER on 12 hits. When Perkins is off, he's really off, and the Mariners' power bats are exactly the kind of lineup that can hang a crooked number on him.
The Athletics' recent form is also a factor. They've lost five straight listed games, with defeats of 5-8 and 1-8 against Texas, followed by 5-8, 3-5, and 3-4 losses against Baltimore. Four of those five losses came by at least two runs. This is a team that's playing out the string, and their bullpen has a 5.48 team ERA — the worst in baseball.
The head-to-head history supports the margin too. In the last 10 meetings, Seattle has won 7 of them with an average score of 5.1 to 3.0. The Mariners swept a three-game series in Oakland back in May by scores of 9-1, 4-1, and 9-2. When these two teams meet, Seattle tends to win comfortably.
PLAYER PROPS
Kade Anderson Under 5.5 Strikeouts
This is the sharpest player prop on the board, and it's grounded in Anderson's workload management. The projection sits at 5.65 strikeouts, but the reality is that Anderson's pitch count is the central variable tonight.
His last start against Toronto on August 29 ended after 4.1 innings. His start before that went 5.2 innings. He's averaging roughly 5.0 innings per outing in what is still early major-league action for a 22-year-old on clear workload management. If Anderson exits after four or five frames, reaching 6 strikeouts becomes a tall order.
The math is simple: Anderson has 8 strikeouts in 10.0 innings this season, a rate of 7.2 K/9. To hit 6 strikeouts, he'd need to pitch at least 7 innings at that rate — or be exceptionally efficient with his punchouts early. Neither scenario is likely given his pitch count limitations.
The Athletics' lineup also doesn't strike out at an alarming rate. Their team K% is around 22%, which is middle of the pack. They're not the kind of free-swinging lineup that pads a pitcher's strikeout total.
The one risk: Anderson's stuff is legitimately good — his xERA of 2.29 is in the 97th percentile. If he's on, he could rack up strikeouts quickly. But the workload cap makes 6+ strikeouts a genuine long shot.
Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 Hits
This is the cleanest individual play on the board, and it's grounded in one of the most lopsided career BvP matchups you'll find. Arozarena is 2-for-4 with 2 home runs and a 1.022 wOBA against Jack Perkins — a 2.500 OPS in 4 career plate appearances.
The current form backs that up. Arozarena has an .893 OPS over the last 7 days and an .827 OPS over the last 28 days, with a season OPS of .820 against right-handed pitching. He's hitting .272 on the season with 22 home runs, and he's the kind of aggressive, powerful hitter who punishes mistake-prone pitchers like Perkins.
Perkins has allowed 100 hits in 95.1 innings this season — a .262 opponent average that ranks in the 28th percentile. He's giving up hard contact at a 36.6% rate, and his 1.70 HR/9 means he's prone to the long ball. Arozarena's power profile is exactly what you want against a pitcher who's been getting hit hard all season.
The one concern: Arozarena's hit prop at -189 is a heavy price. But when you have a career 2.500 OPS against the opposing starter and current form that's trending up, you pay the juice.
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FREE PICK: MARINERS -1.5
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