Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, HR Derby 7/18/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, HR Derby 7/18/26

WASHINGTON @ ATHLETICS (ATH -121, 11)

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NATIONALS @ ATHLETICS 7/18/26

The Washington Nationals and Oakland Athletics continue their three-game set tonight at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. After the Nationals absolutely dismantled the Athletics in a 23-4 blowout on Friday, the market is reacting to one of the most explosive offensive performances of the season. Tonight features a matchup between right-handers Zack Littell and J.T. Ginn, with the Nationals looking to maintain their status as one of the hottest lineups in baseball.

While the Athletics are slight home favorites, the statistical value is overwhelmingly on the Washington Nationals as plus-money underdogs. Washington enters this contest with a top-2 offense in the majors over the last 14 days, posting a massive 142 wRC+.

The Nationals' offense is currently a "fireworks display," as evidenced by their 23-run outburst last night. Andrés Chaparro was the catalyst, hitting two home runs and tallying eight RBIs in the series opener. The news is even better for Washington today, as All-Star outfielder Juan Soto is expected to be back in the lineup after exiting Thursday with calf soreness. The Athletics, meanwhile, are reeling from a nine-game losing streak and will be without key pillars Nick Kurtz and Zack Gelof, who are both on the Injured List.

Littell (41-35 career record) takes the mound for Washington and has been remarkably consistent lately. Since May 1st, he has posted a 3.61 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, allowing only 48 hits over 57.1 innings. He faces an Athletics lineup that has struggled to find consistency, averaging just 4.40 runs per game (17th in MLB). J.T. Ginn has been solid for Oakland but carries a concerning 1.56 WHIP at home, which is a dangerous metric against a Nationals team that leads the majors with 539 runs scored.

GAME TOTAL

Sutter Health Park has proven to be extremely conducive to scoring, and with two offenses that rank highly in recent production, this high total is still worth attacking.

The Nationals' offense is averaging 5.3 runs per game (2nd in MLB), and they have been particularly lethal against right-handed pitching on the road. The Athletics' pitching staff has surrendered 528 runs this year (29th in MLB) and holds a team ERA of 5.20. Furthermore, the Oakland bullpen has a major league-worst 5.53 ERA, which often leads to late-game scoring surges.

Last night's 27-run combined total highlights the park factors in Sacramento. With the Nationals ranking second-best in the league against left-handed pitching (118 wRC+) and the Athletics ranking third in wRC+ at home (118 wRC+), the environment is set for another high-scoring affair. Sharp money has already pushed this total up from an opening of 10.5 to 11.5 at several books.

BEST PLAYER PROPS

James Wood is one of the most consistent contributors in the Nationals' lineup, and his recent trends make this plus-money prop a standout selection. Wood has been elite over his last 5 games, hitting the over on this prop in 80% of those contests with a mean of 4.2. Over his last 15 games, he has maintained an 80% hit rate, averaging 3.93 Hits + Runs + RBIs. He went 2-for-5 with 2 RBIs in last night's victory and has 28 home runs on the season.

Wood faces J.T. Ginn, who struggles with a high WHIP (1.56) at home. Wood is hitting .282 against right-handed pitching this season with 20 home runs. In his only career game against Oakland in 2026, he recorded 5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (100% hit rate). His ability to drive the ball in a hitter-friendly park like Sutter Health Park gives him multiple paths to clearing this 2.5 HRR.

If you are looking for a high-probability anchor for your night, CJ Abrams is the most reliable contact hitter in this matchup. Abrams has recorded at least one hit in 100% of his last 5 games and 90% of his last 10 games. He is currently hitting .278 on the season and has been a terror on the basepaths. In his last 20 games, he has maintained a 75% hit rate, averaging nearly a hit per game.

Abrams has dominated the Athletics in 2026, recording 2 hits in his only matchup (100% hit rate). Historically, he has hit the over in 66.67% of his games against Oakland. When playing as a visitor, his hit rate remains a strong 72.73%. Against a pitcher like Ginn who allows 8.4 hits per nine innings, Abrams is statistically positioned to extend his hitting streak.

While Littell isn't known as a massive strikeout pitcher, this line is set significantly lower than his recent performance levels. Littell has cleared this 2.5 strikeout line in 80% of his last 5 games, averaging 3.6 strikeouts per start. Over his last 10 games, he has maintained that 80% hit rate. For the season, he has hit the over in 63.16% of his 19 starts.

The Athletics' lineup is prone to the punchout, ranking 9th in MLB with 841 strikeouts this season. Littell has shown improved swing-and-miss stuff lately, and his ability to limit walks (only 161 in 692 career innings) allows him to go deeper into counts to find strikeout opportunities. Even in a hitter-friendly park, his command should allow him to navigate through the Oakland order at least twice, which is usually enough to secure three strikeouts.

Get free MLB Picks and MLB Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2026 MLB schedule from the YLose.com  crew, one of the industry's largest networks of premier expert MLB handicappers. YLose.com has been bringing the MLB betting community the best MLB free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best MLB moneyline and point spread odds and game totals.

FREE PICK: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 4+ RUNS

After last night’s ridiculous 23 runs by the Nationals, we won’t expect that again. But…tonight’s total has moved from 10.5 to 11 and to 11.5 at some books. Littell has a 4.90 ERA and Ginn is coming off a start where he gave up 8 ER. Sutter Health Park is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in MLB and both teams have their team total set at or near 5.5. Washington is the No.1 scoring team in baseball and the A’s average nearly 5 runs a game at home.

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