Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, NFL Picks, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions, 11/9/26
BUFFALO @ MINNESOTA (BUF -3, 44.5)
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BILLS @ VIKINGS 11/9/26
Two 6-1 teams, two completely opposite identities, and a quarterback change that has quietly reshaped this entire board. Buffalo brings the NFL's most efficient offense into U.S. Bank Stadium to face Minnesota's suffocating Brian Flores defense — and the market has already told us what it thinks, with the Bills sitting as roughly a field-goal road favorite and the total crashing from an opening 49.5 all the way down to 44.5.
🎯 Who Wins: Buffalo Bills
This is a "great offense vs. great defense" game on paper, but the underlying numbers say the gap between these two teams is wider than the gap between those two units. Buffalo is the No. 4 team in total DVOA at 25.5% and owns the No. 3 offense in football at 23.4% DVOA — a unit that leads the league in points per game (33.29, 1st), yards per play (6.69, 1st), yards per pass attempt (8.75, 1st), touchdown percentage (6.21%, 1st), and yards per reception (13.87, 1st). That's not a one-trick offense; it's a machine that scores in every conceivable way, ranking No. 1 in rushing touchdowns (16) and No. 3 in rushing yards per game (148.43).
Minnesota's defense is legitimately elite — No. 3 in defensive DVOA at -17.8%, No. 1 in points allowed (13.29 per game), No. 1 in passing touchdowns allowed (4 total), No. 1 in sack rate (10.34%), and No. 1 in quarterback pressure rate (39.41%). Flores is going to send bodies. But here's the problem: the Vikings' offense is a disaster. Minnesota ranks 30th in offensive DVOA at -14.6%, 27th in points scored (20.0 per game), 28th in passing yards (205.29 per game), and dead last in rushing touchdowns (3). They've scored more than 23 points exactly once all season.
And now they're handing the keys to Carson Wentz with Kyler Murray out (hamstring). Wentz has been serviceable in relief — he's got the 22nd-best EPA per play among qualifying quarterbacks versus Murray's 35th — but asking a backup to keep pace with Josh AllenJosh Allen in a dome is a tall order. The sharp money agrees with me: the sharp picks table has Buffalo at a 61.63% win probability on the moneyline, and the spread sharp split leans Buffalo at 52.4% against the spread.
The one thing keeping this from being a blowout is Minnesota's home-field edge and that defense. But Buffalo has too many ways to score, and Minnesota's offense can't be trusted to string together enough drives. Bills win, something in the 24-17 range.
💰 Best Bets
1. Josh Allen Over 0.5 Touchdowns
Allen has scored a rushing touchdown in six of his last seven games — an 85.71% hit rate over the last seven — and he's hit the over on this 0.5 line in 80% of his last five and 80% of his last ten. The projection model has him at 0.7 touchdowns, comfortably above the half. He's the Bills' primary goal-line option, and the market has consistently underbought his scoring prowess — his season-long rushing touchdown line was set at 10.5, which tells you everything about how slow books have been to adjust to his red-zone role.
The matchup concern is real — Minnesota allows the fewest touchdowns in football (8 total, 1st) and the lowest touchdown percentage allowed (1.98%, 1st). But Allen's volume near the goal line is so consistent that even a stout defense can't fully suppress it, and Buffalo's No. 1-ranked rushing touchdown offense (16) is built to punch it in when they get close. At -108, you're getting a near-coin-flip price on a guy who cashes this at 80%+.
2. Khalil Shakir Over 3.5 Receptions
This is the schematic bet of the night, and it's rooted in exactly how Flores defends. The Vikings blitz on damn near every snap — they lead the league in pressure rate at 39.41% and sack rate at 10.34%. Against that, the counter is quick game: get the ball out fast to underneath targets before the rush arrives. That's Shakir's entire role. He's hit over 3.5 receptions in 70% of his last ten games and 66.67% of his last fifteen, with a projection of 4.09 receptions — a full half-catch above the line. On the road this season he's cleared this number in 66.67% of his games.
The news flow reinforces it: against Flores' blitz-happy unit, the Bills will need to get the ball out quickly, which means underneath targets like Shakir and passing-down back Ty Johnson are heavily involved. It might be a lighter game for the tight ends, who often stay in to protect against the blitz — which funnels more targets to Shakir in the slot. At -138, you're paying a modest premium for a role that's tailor-made for this matchup.
3. Dalton Kincaid Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
Kincaid is the beneficiary of a banged-up Buffalo pass-catching corps and a projection that sits above the line. He's hit Over 39.5 receiving yards in 70% of his last ten games and 66.67% of his last fifteen, with a projection of 41.0 yards — just above the number. On the road this season he's cleared it in 66.67% of his games, averaging 58.33 yards in those contests. The matchup is favorable too: Minnesota's defense ranks 27th in yards per reception allowed (12.61), meaning when the Bills do get the ball to their tight end in space, he can pile up chunk yards.
The one caveat is that tight ends sometimes stay in to block against Flores' blitz — but Kincaid's route participation and the projection both point to him being involved enough to clear this modest number. At -110, it's a fair price on a player whose median outcome beats the line.
4. Aaron Jones Sr. Over 31.5 Rushing Yards
This is a plus-money value play on volume and matchup. Jones has cleared 31.5 rushing yards in 80% of his last ten games and 80% of his last fifteen, with a projection of 35.24 yards — above the line. At home this season he's hit it in 66.67% of his games, averaging 53.33 yards in those contests. The matchup is the key: Buffalo's run defense ranks 10th in rushing yards allowed (97.43 per game) but is far more vulnerable than that number suggests — they rank 24th in yards per carry allowed (4.54) and 31st in missed tackles (44), with a 10.45% missed tackle rate (27th). That's a defense that can be run on, especially by a back who gets volume.
The concern is game script — if the Bills jump out early, Minnesota may abandon the run. But Jones is the Vikings' lead back and the projection supports the over at plus money. Getting +101 on an 80% hit rate over the last ten games is real value.
5. Aaron Jones Sr. Over 1.5 Receptions
A correlated add-on to the rushing yards play, and a bet that cashes even if the game script goes pass-heavy. Jones has caught at least two passes in 70% of his last ten games and 73.33% of his last fifteen, with a projection of 2.0 receptions. The matchup is excellent: Buffalo's defense ranks 31st in receptions allowed (24.14 per game) and 31st in pass attempts allowed (38.29 per game) — they give up a ton of completions. If the Vikings are chasing points, Jones becomes a check-down option out of the backfield, and that's exactly the kind of volume that clears 1.5 catches.
At -141, you're paying up a bit, but the role and matchup both support it. This pairs nicely with the rushing yards Over as a way to profit from Jones' overall involvement regardless of how the game flows.
6. Josh Over 230.5 Passing Yards
Allen's passing volume is being underestimated here, and the projection backs it up. He's hit Over 230.5 passing yards in 80% of his last ten games and 66.67% of his last fifteen, with a projection of 232.45 yards — just above the line. On the road this season he's cleared it in 66.67% of his games, averaging 266.33 yards in those contests. The matchup is tougher than usual — Minnesota ranks 3rd in passing yards allowed (205.43 per game) and 1st in completion percentage allowed (56.16%) — but Allen's volume and efficiency (No. 1 in yards per pass attempt at 8.75) mean he doesn't need a huge completion rate to pile up yards.
The blitz is the wild card: Allen has been blitzed on a third of his dropbacks, and while his numbers dip against pressure, he also takes shots downfield when the line holds up. At -111, this is a fair price on a quarterback whose median outcome clears the number.
7. Ray Davis Over 5.5 Rushing Yards
A low-line volume play with a strong projection and a plus-EV tag. Davis has a 6.35% expected value on this line at Caesars, and the projection supports it. He's the Bills' change-of-pace back behind James Cook, and against a Minnesota defense that ranks 24th in yards per carry allowed (4.54) and 17th in rushing yards allowed (116.71 per game), there should be room for him to rip off a chunk gain or two. The line is set at just 5.5 yards — one carry can cash it.
This is a small-stakes, high-probability play that fits the game script: if Buffalo builds a lead, Davis gets fourth-quarter carries to salt the game away. At -110 with a positive EV tag, it's worth a look.
⚠️ Injury Notes That Matter
Kyler Murray (Vikings) is OUT with a hamstring — Carson Wentz starts. This is the single biggest factor in the line. Jauan Jennings (Vikings) is OUT, thinning Minnesota's receiving corps behind Jefferson. Josh Oliver (Vikings) is on IR, removing a red-zone tight end option.
Joshua Palmer (Bills) is OUT, which funnels more targets to Shakir and Kincaid. OT Dion Dawkins (Bills) is QUESTIONABLE — worth monitoring for Allen's protection against that Flores blitz.
🏁 The Bottom Line
Bills win, and the best bets are Allen's touchdown prop, Shakir's receptions, and Kincaid's receiving yards. The total has crashed from 49.5 to 44.5 for a reason — Minnesota's defense is real — but Buffalo's offense is the best unit in football, and the Vikings' offense can't be trusted to keep pace with a backup quarterback under center. The sharp money is on Buffalo at 61.63% on the moneyline, and I'm with it.
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