Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, NFL Picks, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions, 8/13/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, NFL Picks, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions, 8/13/26

ARIZONA @ LAS VEGAS (LV -2.5, 43.5)

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CARDINALS @ RAIDERS 8/13/26

The Arizona Cardinals and Las Vegas Raiders face off tonight at 8:00 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium. This matchup is a classic preseason study in depth versus debut. The Cardinals enter with the advantage of having already played a live game (the Hall of Fame Game), while the Raiders are unveiling a new era under a first-year coaching staff and the highly anticipated debut of the #1 overall pick, Fernando Mendoza.

The Cardinals are in a prime position to cover this short spread due to their significant experience advantage at the quarterback position and the "second game" preseason trend. Arizona has already seen live action in the Hall of Fame Game, where they scored 30 points. Historically, teams playing their second preseason game against an opponent playing their first have a distinct edge in timing and execution.

Recent Performance & Trends:

HOF Trend: The last four Hall of Fame Game teams won their following week by an average score of 26.3 to 9.8.

Quarterback Depth: Arizona is rotating Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew II, and Carson Beck. Beck was spectacular in his debut, completing a high percentage of passes and showing veteran-like poise.

Raiders ATS Struggle: Las Vegas has historically been one of the worst-covering teams in the preseason over the last 26 years.

Matchup Analysis:

The Raiders are breaking in a new offensive system under Klint Kubiak and a rookie head coach. Preseason openers for new coaching staffs are often plagued by "sloppy" play and communication issues. Arizona’s defense has already adjusted to game speed, which should allow them to stifle a Raiders offensive line that remains a major question mark heading into tonight.

News Synthesis:

Head coach Mike LaFleur confirmed that starters like Jacoby Brissett and rookie RB Jeremiyah Love will play at least one or two series. Once the starters exit, Arizona turns to Gardner Minshew and Carson Beck—two players with significantly more professional polish than the Raiders' backup rotation of a rookie (Mendoza) and a turnover-prone Aidan O'Connell.

If you’re looking for a plus-money play, the Cardinals to win outright is the move. Preseason home-field advantage is largely a myth, and the statistical mismatch between the two quarterback rooms becomes glaringly obvious in the second half of games.

Statistical Backing:

QB Efficiency: In the Hall of Fame Game, Cardinals QBs Carson Beck and Kedon Slovis combined to go 24-of-29 for 282 yards and 2 TDs with 0 interceptions.

Raiders Efficiency: Last season, the Raiders' offense was one of the worst in the league, ranking 31st in Offense DVOA (-28.7%) and 32nd in rushing yards per game (77.47). While it's a new season, many of the depth pieces remain the same.

Matchup Analysis:

The Raiders will give "plenty" of time to #1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza. While Mendoza has high upside, the last four QBs picked first overall were held without a touchdown pass in their preseason debuts, with their teams going 1-3. Arizona’s defense, which has already had a "tune-up" game, is well-positioned to confuse a rookie making his first NFL start.

News Synthesis:

The Raiders' offensive line is undergoing a total overhaul under new coach Rick Dennison. With starters like Kolton Miller dealing with injury history and young players like Delmar Glaze still acclimating, the Raiders' QBs may be under constant duress. Arizona’s veteran depth should be able to capitalize on these protection breakdowns to secure an outright victory.

Game Total

This total has been inflated due to Arizona’s 63-point outburst in the Hall of Fame Game. However, that game was an anomaly. Preseason totals over 40 are historically profitable "Under" bets, especially when one team is making its debut.

Statistical Backing:

Defensive Trends: The last six teams to play in the HOF game did not allow their following week's opponent to score more than 20 points.

Raiders Defensive Rank: Despite their offensive struggles, the Raiders' defense was respectable last year, ranking 14th in Defense DVOA (-1.2%) and 4th in yards per carry allowed (3.89).

Cardinals Defensive Rank: Arizona ranked 4th in third-down conversion rate defense (44.28%) last season, showing they can get off the field in key situations.

Matchup Analysis:

Preseason openers often feature conservative play-calling, especially with a rookie QB like Mendoza who needs to focus on "footwork and processing" rather than taking deep shots. Additionally, the Raiders' focus on the "one-cut-and-run" ability of Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr. suggests a run-heavy approach that will keep the clock moving.

News Synthesis:

Coach Mike LaFleur noted that starters will only play "one drive, max of two." Once the primary playmakers exit, expect both teams to settle into vanilla schemes. The Raiders' defense has added four defensive backs in the draft and veteran linebackers, specifically to improve a unit that was already the strength of the team.

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