Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, NFL Picks, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions, 8/20/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, NFL Picks, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions, 8/20/26

LAS VEGAS @ HOUSTON (HOU -1.5, 38.5)

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RAIDERS @ TEXANS 8/20/26

Both of these teams are still searching for their first preseason win, and this Week 2 preseason clash at NRG Stadium has a fascinating quarterback storyline. The No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza is expected to see significant action for Las Vegas, while Houston's starter situation is murky after coach DeMeco Ryans flip-flopped on whether his first-teamers will play. Let me break down where the value is.

GAME OVERVIEW & LINE MOVEMENT

The market has been all over the place on this one. The spread opened with Houston as a 1.5-point favorite, but it's been steamed down to a pick'em at most books — FanDuel has the Texans at -1.5 (even), while the consensus has moved to Houston -1.0. The total has ticked up from 37.5 to 38.5, with the Over at -105 consensus.

The key storyline is the quarterback situation. Reports initially indicated DeMeco Ryans would play his starters for a couple of series, but he's since changed his mind and the starters will sit. That's a massive shift — it means C.J. Stroud, David Montgomery, and Nico Collins won't see the field, and Davis Mills will handle the bulk of the work under center.

Meanwhile, Raiders coach Klint Kubiak has been noncommittal about his starters, but the expectation is that Kirk Cousins sits and Mendoza gets the start — potentially playing most, if not all, of the first half. That's a tough spot for the rookie against a Texans defense that was one of the best in football last season, even if their starters are limited.

GAME TOTAL

Under 38.5 

This is the sharpest play on the board, and the context supports it from every angle. The Under cashed in 11 of the 16 preseason games in Week 1, and both of these teams were part of that trend. The Raiders managed just 14 points against the Cardinals, while the Texans put up only 7 against the Chargers. Neither offense has shown any ability to sustain drives, let alone put up points.

With Houston's starters sitting, Davis Mills takes the reins. He threw for just 82 yards on 15 attempts in Week 1 and lost a fumble. The Raiders are expected to lean on Mendoza, who was efficient but not explosive in his debut — 97 yards on 16 attempts with a touchdown. His average depth of target was a pedestrian 7.7 yards, and his time to throw was a slow 3.13 seconds. That's a recipe for stalled drives, not points.

Houston's starting defense is elite — they were one of the best units in football last season. Even if they only play a series or two, they should make life miserable for Mendoza and the Raiders' backup offensive line. Once the starters come out, Houston's second-string defense is still scary, with veterans like Jadeveon Clowney and Logan Hall, plus rookies Kayden McDonald and Kamari Ramsey.

At -110, you're getting a fair price on a total that's been moving up from 37.5, but the fundamentals haven't changed. Both offenses struggled to score in Week 1, both starting quarterbacks are sitting, and the defenses are the stronger units on the field. The Under is the play.

BETTING THE SPREAD

Las Vegas Raiders +1.5 

This is the contrarian angle, and it's worth considering if you believe the Raiders' starters see the field.

If Kirk Cousins plays even a series or two, the Raiders should be able to jump out to an early lead. Cousins was sharp in Week 1 — 5-of-6 for 50 yards and a touchdown — and the revamped offensive line generated real push for Ashton Jeanty, who averaged 5.3 yards per carry.

The Texans' starters are sitting, which means Houston's offense will be led by Davis Mills and a backup backfield. The Raiders' defense struggled in Week 1, but they were facing Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew — two veterans who carved them up. Mills is a step down from that level of competition.

At -119, you're getting a reasonable price on a team that could have a significant talent advantage if their starters play. The Texans' decision to sit their starters changes the calculus — this is no longer a game where Houston's first-teamers are expected to jump out to an early lead. If the Raiders' starters play even a series, they should be able to build a lead that the backups can protect.

PLAYER PROPS

Fernando Mendoza Over 0.5 Passing Touchdowns 

This is a plus-money play on the No. 1 overall pick, who showed real promise in his debut. Mendoza completed 10-of-16 passes for 97 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinals. He showed good ball placement, read through his progressions quickly, and made generally good decisions. He was disappointed with his own performance, saying he "let his teammates down," which suggests he'll be motivated to prove himself tonight.

With Kirk Cousins expected to play only a series or two, Mendoza should get extended run — potentially most, if not all, of the first half. That's a lot of opportunities to find the end zone, even against a tough Houston defense.

Houston's defense is elite, and Mendoza will be facing a unit that dominated the line of scrimmage in joint practices. His time to throw was slow in Week 1 (3.13 seconds), and that could be a problem against a pass rush that should generate consistent pressure.

At +105, you're getting plus-money on a quarterback who threw a touchdown in his debut and should see significant playing time. The Texans' starters are sitting, which means Mendoza will be facing backups for most of the game. That's a much more favorable matchup than facing Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter for extended stretches.

Mike Washington Jr. Over 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns

This is a long-shot play on a rookie who showed explosive potential in Week 1. Washington ripped off a 53-yard touchdown run against the Cardinals, finishing with 63 yards on just six carries. He led the Raiders in touches, saw a target in the passing game, and even returned a kickoff. The Vegas brass clearly wants to see what he can offer.

With Ashton Jeanty expected to see limited work, Washington should get significant carries. He's a fourth-round rookie who racked up over 1,000 rushing yards at Arkansas last season and blazed a 4.33 40-yard dash — the fastest among all running backs at the 2026 NFL combine.

The concern: Houston's defense is deep and talented, even without their starters. Washington will be running against a unit that's been dominant in practice, and the Texans' defensive line should control the line of scrimmage.

At +180, you're getting a solid price on a player who showed he can break a big run. Washington's explosiveness is a real weapon, and if he gets enough carries, he should have at least one opportunity near the goal line. The Raiders' offensive line generated push in Week 1, and that should carry over.

THINGS TO CONSIDER

The quarterback carousel: This is the entire story of the game. DeMeco Ryans initially said his starters would play, then changed his mind and decided to sit them. That means Davis Mills gets the bulk of the work for Houston, while the Raiders are expected to lean on Mendoza. The rookie looked sharp in his debut, but he'll be facing a much tougher defense tonight.

The injury situation: The Texans are dealing with significant losses. Jayden Higgins is out with a torn ACL, Graham Mertz is on injured reserve, and Tank Dell, Jaylin Noel, and several others are questionable. That's a depleted receiving corps, which should limit Houston's offensive ceiling. The Raiders have their own issues, with Corey Rucker and Justin Shorter on injured reserve.

The joint practice factor: Reports indicate the Texans dominated the line of scrimmage in joint practices with the Raiders this week. That's a significant edge that should translate to the game, especially once the backups come in. Houston's defensive line depth is among the best in the league.

The preseason trends: The Under cashed in 11 of 16 games in Week 1, and both of these teams were part of that trend. The Raiders scored just 14 points, while the Texans managed only 7. Neither offense has shown any ability to sustain drives, and that's unlikely to change tonight.

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