Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, NFL Picks, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions, 9/24/26
ATLANTA @ GREEN BAY (GB -4.5, 43.5)
NFL ODDS, NFL PREDICTIONS, NFL PREVIEWS
COACH RICK NFL FREE PICKS
FALCONS @ PACKERS 9/24/26
Green Bay hosts this Week 3 NFC clash at Lambeau as a 4.5-point favorite, with the total sitting at 43.5. The sharp money is decisive here: the sharp picks table gives the Packers a 69.31% win probability on the moneyline. The line opened as high as -7.5 and the market has settled at -4.5, while Atlanta's moneyline has shortened from +285 to around +200. That's a market telling you the Falcons could be a live underdog. How will it play out?
🎯 THE WINNER: GREEN BAY PACKERS
The case for the Packers starts with the sharpest signal on the board: 69.31% sharp win probability for Green Bay versus just 30.69% for Atlanta. The matchup itself is a mismatch on paper. Atlanta's offense has been historically bad through two weeks: 32nd in points per game (8.0), 32nd in passing yards per game (164.5), 31st in yards per play (4.89), and a -46.7% offensive DVOA that ranks 31st. They've scored just 16 total points, produced one offensive touchdown, and turned the ball over six times while forcing none — an NFL-worst -6 turnover differential. Cooper Rush was so ineffective (22-39, 229 yards, 4 INTs, 1 TD) that he got benched for undrafted rookie Jack Strand in Week 2.
Green Bay's defense is the real separator. The Packers rank 3rd in yards per play allowed (4.81), 2nd in yards per carry allowed (2.85), and 8th in yards per pass attempt allowed (6.86). They've recorded seven sacks through two games. That's a brutal draw for a Falcons offense that will be starting Michael Penix Jr. Penix Jr. for the first time this season — coming off an ACL injury, on a short week, at Lambeau, against a top-five run defense.
The one caveat: Green Bay's own offense has been shaky. Jordan Love ranks dead last in completion percentage (52.11%), the Packers are 32nd in rushing yards per game (64.5) with Josh Jacobs on the Commissioner's Exempt List, and the offensive line has allowed seven sacks. That's why this is a "take the Packers to win" play rather than a blowout call — but the sharp probability and the defensive mismatch make Green Bay the clear side.
💰 BETTING THE SPREAD
The spread has dropped from -7.5 to -4.5, which means you're getting the Packers at a discount relative to where this game opened. The sharp ATS split is nearly even (51.16% Green Bay / 48.84% Atlanta), so this isn't a screaming edge on the number itself — but the underlying matchup supports the favorite covering.
Here's the logic: Atlanta's offense can't stay on the field. They're 30th in third-down conversion rate (24.0%) and 31st in touchdown percentage (0.81%). Against a Packers defense that's 8th in third-down defense (48.48%) and 3rd in yards per play allowed, the Falcons will struggle to sustain drives. Meanwhile, Green Bay's offense should find room against an Atlanta defense that's 26th in passing yards allowed (269.0 per game) and just lost top corner A.J. Terrell Jr. to injured reserve.
The risk is that Green Bay's own offensive line issues (7 sacks allowed, 32nd in rushing) keep this close. Starting RT Zach Bako-Bewele is out for the season and two other offensive linemen are banged up. But at -4.5, you're not asking for a blowout — you're asking the better team, at home, with the better defense, to win by a little more than a field goal.
GAME TOTAL ANALYSIS
Under 43.5 Total Points
This is one of the top plays on the board, and the sharp money agrees — the sharp total split leans Under at 50.46% versus 49.54% on the Over, and the total has been bet down from 46.5 to 43.5. That's a three-point move toward the Under, which tells you where the smart money landed.
The case is straightforward: both offenses are broken. Atlanta is 32nd in points per game (8.0) and hasn't reached the red zone all season. Green Bay is 32nd in rushing yards per game (64.5) and 32nd in completion percentage (52.11%). The Packers' offensive line has allowed seven sacks, and they're without Josh Jacobs. This is not a track meet.
The Under has cashed in both Falcons games this season, and Atlanta's defensive profile actually supports a lower-scoring game than their record suggests — they're 7th in yards per play allowed (5.44) and 3rd in yards per carry allowed (2.93). If the Falcons lean on Bijan Robinson and chew clock, this game stays Under the total.
TOP PLAYER PROPS
Bijan Robinson Over 4.5 Receptions
This could be the sharpest prop on the board, and the reasoning is clean. Robinson had eight receptions in Week 1 but just three in Week 2 — and that drop-off is explained entirely by game script. The Falcons got blown out 34-3 by Carolina, and Robinson had only four touches in the second half with the game out of hand. In a more competitive game, his receiving volume returns.
The bigger factor is Penix's return. Coming back from an ACL injury, Penix is unlikely to want to absorb hits, which points to a heavy dose of check-downs and dump-offs to his running back. Robinson is the best player on the field for either side, and the Falcons will scheme ways to get him the ball in space — especially against a Packers run defense that's 2nd in yards per carry allowed (2.85). If the ground game is stuffed, the passing game becomes the outlet.
Robinson's receiving line is 4.5, and given his Week 1 usage (8 catches) and the game-script projection, the Over is the right side.
Matthew Golden Over 53.5 Receiving Yards
Golden has been Green Bay's most reliable receiver through two weeks, posting 95 yards in Week 1 and 58 yards in Week 2 while playing 82% and 86% of the snaps — tops among Packers wideouts. With Jayden Reed out (neck), Golden is locked into two-WR sets and should see steady target volume.
The matchup is the selling point. Atlanta will be without A.J. Terrell Jr., and they're allowing the 8th-most receiving yards per game to receivers (177.5). They've surrendered 508 passing yards and four passing touchdowns through two weeks while failing to record an interception. Golden's Week 2 line (58 yards) actually undersells his performance — he had a catchable target he should have hauled in and drew two pass interference penalties. If any of those connect, his stat line looks much better.
Kaleb Johnson Over 34.5 Rushing Yards
This is a role-based play. Johnson didn't play an offensive snap in Week 1, but he led the Packers with eight carries for 32 yards against the Jets in Week 2, averaging 4.0 yards per attempt on just 16 snaps. More importantly, MarShawn Lloyd lost a fumble early in the fourth quarter and played just one snap after — Johnson handled both of Green Bay's running back carries in overtime, gaining 14 yards.
That's a clear signal that Johnson is moving ahead of Lloyd for early-down work. At his Week 2 efficiency (4.0 YPC), he'd need only nine carries to clear 34.5 yards. With the Packers favored by 4.5 at home and Atlanta's offense struggling to stay on the field, Green Bay should lean on the run in the second half. The game script sets up perfectly for Johnson to get volume.
Tucker Kraft Anytime TD
Kraft's targets halved from six to three across the first two games, but the underlying usage is trending up — he ran routes on 78% of dropbacks in Week 2, up from 48% in Week 1. That's a meaningful jump in involvement.
The matchup is the real edge. Atlanta has already allowed three touchdowns to tight ends this season — Pat Freiermuth scored in Week 1, and Darren Waller had two on Sunday. The Falcons' defense has been shredded by tight ends, and Kraft is Green Bay's primary red-zone threat at the position. Last season, Kraft had six touchdowns in eight games before injury. At +185, you're getting plus-money on a player with a clear path to the end zone against a defense that can't stop tight ends.
Michael Penix Jr. Over 0.5 Passing Touchdowns
Use this as a parlay piece as it’s priced in the -250 range. Penix has hit this line in 80% of his last five games and 70% of his last 10, with a 66.67% season hit rate. The Falcons have scored just one offensive touchdown all season. Penix can get at least one passing TD against a suspect Green Bay pass defense.
Green Bay's defense has allowed four passing touchdowns through two games (2.0 per game), and they're 24th in touchdown percentage allowed (5.43%). The Packers have been stout between the 20s but vulnerable in the red zone. In the 9 games Penix played last season, the Falcons averaged 20.5 points per game. He threw at least one TD in 6 of the 9 games.
Get free NFL Picks and NFL Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2026 NFL schedule from the YLose.com crew, one of the industry's largest networks of premier expert NFL handicappers. YLose.com has been bringing the NFL betting community the best NFL free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best NFL moneyline and point spread odds and game totals.
FREE PICK: TUCKER KRAFT ANYTIME TD
Ylose expert Coach Rick Bowe delivers his daily Quick Picks. The Coach continues to roll up big wins in college basketball, college football, the NFL, MLB and much more. Coach Rick offers a unique perspective to handicapping. Check out his daily free picks right here and jump on his daily Best Bets, which you can find right here at Ylose.com/coach.
