Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, NFL Picks, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions, 9/27/26
LA RAMS @ DENVER (LAR -1.5, 43.5)
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RAMS @ BRONCOS 9/27/26
The Los Angeles Rams (1-1) travel to Empower Field at Mile High to face the Denver Broncos (1-1) in a Sunday Night Football clash between two teams that both stumbled in Week 1 and steadied themselves in Week 2. Kickoff is 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC, and the market has this one tight — the Rams are roughly 1.5-to-2.5-point road favorites with a total that's been bet down hard from 45.5 to 43.5. Here's who I've got winning, and where the real value sits on the board.
🎯 WHO WINS
I'm taking Los Angeles to win and cover — and the sharp money agrees. The sharp picks table has the Rams at a 54.2% sharp win percentage on the moneyline versus Denver's 45.8%, and the spread sharp edge sits at 49.65% on the Rams against 50.35% on Denver — essentially a coin flip on the number, but the moneyline lean is clearly toward Los Angeles.
The case starts with the coaching matchup. Sean McVay is 3-1 both straight-up and against the spread against Sean Payton, and in a close, primetime, field-position game, I trust McVay and Matthew Stafford more than Bo Nix and Payton. The Rams also own the recent head-to-head — they've won 5 in a row against Denver, including a 51-14 demolition on Christmas night in 2022, and the last completed meeting between these two went Rams 1-0 straight up, 1-0 ATS, with an average score of 51-14
The statistical profile backs the Rams' side of the ball. Los Angeles is 4th in yards per play (6.74) and 6th in yards per carry (5.0), and their defense has been quietly excellent — 4th in yards allowed per game (281.5), 3rd in passing yards allowed (168.5), and 3rd in yards per pass attempt allowed (5.11). That's a defense that can make life difficult for a Denver offense that's been uneven.
The one thing that gives me pause is the spot: the Rams are on a short week after a Monday night game, traveling into Denver's altitude, and they're banged up — Puka Nacua is doubtful and Myles Garrett is on injured reserve. But Denver has its own problems, and the Rams' run game plus their defensive front should be enough to grind out a road win in a low-scoring game.
GAME TOTAL ANALYSIS
Under 43.5
This is my favorite play on the board. The total has been hammered down from 45.5 to 43.5, and the underlying logic is sound: these are two of the better defenses in football, and both offenses have real question marks. The Rams' first two games produced just 34 points each, and Denver's defense — which ranked #2 in yards per pass attempt allowed, #2 against the run, and #1 in sacks last season — held Jacksonville to 13 points and 268 total yards in Week 2.
The Rams want to shorten the game with their rushing attack, especially with Nacua doubtful and Colby Parkinson questionable. Denver's defense is vulnerable on the ground — 29th against the run, allowing 157.5 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry — which means Los Angeles will lean on Kyren Williams and Blake Corum to chew clock rather than air it out. That's a recipe for a low-scoring, grind-it-out game. Add in the altitude and the short week for the Rams, and I see this landing in the low 40s or high 30s.
TOP PLAYER PROPS
Kyren Williams Over 54.5 Rushing Yards
This is the single best prop on the board, and the numbers are overwhelming. Williams has cleared 54.5 rushing yards in 80% of his last ten games (averaging 69.3) and 80% of his last fifteen (72.6), and he's coming off an 85-yard performance on 12 carries against the Giants. The matchup is ideal — Denver is 29th against the run, surrendering 157.5 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry, and with Nacua out, the Rams have every reason to feature the ground game.
Williams is also the Rams' goal-line back — he's the only Los Angeles running back to get work inside the 10-yard line this season, and both of his touchdowns have come in the first half. The Broncos' run defense is the softest part of an otherwise strong unit, and Williams should see plenty of volume in a game the Rams want to control on the ground.
Matthew Stafford Over 242.5 Passing Yards
Stafford has been on a tear. He's cleared 242.5 passing yards in 90% of his last ten games (averaging 305.2) and 86.67% of his last fifteen (283.93), and he just torched the Giants for 327 yards and 4 touchdowns — with 195 of those yards and 2 scores going to Davante Adams. Even without Nacua, Stafford has proven he can move the ball.
The matchup is favorable. Denver's defense is strong against the pass, but the Broncos' run defense is so poor that the Rams may be forced to throw more than they'd like if Denver stacks the box. And with Pat Surtain II likely shadowing Adams, Stafford will need to spread the ball around to Terrance Ferguson and others — which means volume. The projection sits at 232.3, but Stafford's recent form and the Rams' need to move the ball through the air make the over the sharper side.
Terrance Ferguson Over 3.5 Receptions
This is the sharpest angle on the board, and it's all about opportunity. With Nacua doubtful and Adams drawing Surtain, Ferguson becomes the Rams' primary slot target — and he delivered last week with 6 catches on 9 targets for 54 yards and a score. The Rams run a ton of 3-tight-end sets, and Ferguson is the beneficiary.
The projection sits at 4.21 receptions, well above the 3.5 line, and the price at -155 reflects the market catching on. But the usage is real: Ferguson saw 9 targets last week, and with the Rams' receiving corps depleted, that volume should continue. Denver's defense is strong, but the tight end position is often where teams attack a Surtain-led secondary.
Bo Nix Over 269.5 Passing + Rushing Yards
This is a plus-EV play with real value — the EV sits at 9.21%, the highest on the board. Nix has been inconsistent, but the Rams' pass rush has been non-existent this season — they're 31st in sacks (0), 31st in pressure rate (4.55%), and 31st in sack rate (0.0%). That's a defense that can't get home, which means Nix should have time to operate.
The Rams' secondary is good, but Nix has a history of scrambling when kept clean — and against a defense that doesn't blitz or pressure, he should have room to run. The projection for his passing + rushing total sits at 239.85, but the plus-money price at +237 gives you a real edge if he has even a modest game. This is a higher-variance play, but the EV justifies it.
MATCHUP NOTES
Why the Rams Win
The Rams are the more complete team, and the advanced metrics bear it out. Their defense is 4th in yards allowed per game (281.5) and 3rd in passing yards allowed (168.5), and their offense is 4th in yards per play (6.74). McVay's 3-1 record against Payton and the Rams' 5-game win streak against Denver are meaningful trends. The Broncos' run defense is a glaring weakness — 29th against the run — and the Rams have the backs to exploit it.
Why Denver Keeps It Close
The Broncos are 9-1 straight up in their last 10 home games, and the altitude at Mile High is a legitimate factor — especially against a Rams team on a short week. Denver's defense is strong against the pass, and Pat Surtain II can neutralize Adams. If Nix protects the ball and the Broncos' run game can generate anything, this could come down to the wire.
The Injury Factor
The Rams are banged up — Nacua doubtful, Garrett on IR, Kamren Kinchens doubtful, Parkinson questionable. Denver is missing Jonathon Cooper (out) and has Marvin Mims Jr. (questionable). The Rams' injuries are more impactful, but their depth has held up.
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FREE PICK: UNDER 44
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