Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, NFL Picks, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions, 9/28/26
PHILADELPHIA @ CHICAGO (PHI -3.5, 41.5)
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EAGLES @ BEARS 9/28/26
The 2-0 Eagles roll into Soldier Field as 3.5-point road favorites, and the story of this game is simple: Chicago is down to its third-string quarterback. Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring injury, Tyson Bagent is questionable, and that leaves 38-year-old journeyman Case Keenum likely taking the snaps under center on Monday Night Football. That single variable reshapes everything about how this game should be bet.
🎯 WHO WINS: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Philadelphia is the play to win this game outright, and the sharp money agrees. The sharp picks table has the Eagles winning 65.19% of the time versus just 34.81% for Chicago — a decisive edge toward the visitors.
The case is straightforward. Philadelphia has won its first two games by a combined six points, including a last-minute Week 2 victory over Tennessee, and they get a Bears team that just lost its franchise quarterback. The Eagles' defense has been quietly excellent against the pass — they rank 5th in passing yards allowed (181.0 per game), 5th in completion percentage allowed (57.41%), and 5th in yards per pass attempt allowed (6.7). That's a brutal matchup for a backup quarterback making his first start of the season.
The Bears' offense is genuinely dangerous on the ground — they lead the NFL in rushing yards (212.5 per game) and yards per carry (6.07) — but asking Keenum to keep pace with Jalen Hurts in a primetime spot is a big ask. The Eagles' biggest defensive weakness is stopping the run (24th in rushing yards allowed at 127.0 per game), so Chicago will move the ball. But moving the ball and scoring enough to beat Philadelphia are two different things.
TOP PLAYER PROPS
Zach Ertz Over 9.5 Receiving Yards
This is the strongest prop on the board, and the numbers are almost comical. Ertz has cleared 9.5 receiving yards in 100% of his last five games, 90% of his last 10, 93.33% of his last 15, and 95% of his last 20. His season-long hit rate sits at 92.31% across 13 games. The projection is 12.07 yards — comfortably above the line.
The matchup is friendly too. With Dallas Goedert out (injured reserve), Ertz is the clear top tight end in this offense and should see a healthy target share. The Bears' defense ranks 31st in yards per reception allowed (15.53) and 30th in yards per play allowed (7.02) — they give up chunk plays in the passing game. Against this opponent last season, Ertz hit the over at 100% with a 43-yard performance.
This is about as close to a lock as you'll find on a prop board. The only risk is a game script where the Eagles run the ball 40 times and Ertz barely sees a target, but even one catch likely clears this number.
Zach Ertz Over 1.5 Receptions
Same player, same logic, different market — and this one pays plus money. Ertz has caught at least two passes in 80% of his last five games, 80% of his last 10, 86.67% of his last 15, and 85% of his last 20. His season hit rate is 84.62% across 13 games. The projection is 1.62 receptions, just above the line.
Getting +115 on a player who has hit this number in 85% of his last 20 games is real value. The implied probability at +115 is just 46.5%, while his actual hit rate is nearly double that. With Goedert out and the Bears' defense vulnerable over the middle, Ertz should see enough targets to haul in at least two catches.
Saquon Barkley Over 72.5 Rushing Yards
This is a matchup-driven play. The Bears allow 4.88 yards per carry (26th) and 122.0 rushing yards per game (23rd) — they've been gashed on the ground all season. Barkley's projection is 70.34 yards, just under the line, but the matchup tilts this toward the over.
Barkley has cleared 72.5 in 60% of his last five games and 60% of his last 10, with a 79.6-yard average over his last five. The concern is that he was banged up in Week 2 and the Eagles went away from the run — but against a Bears defense that can't stop the run, Philadelphia should feed him early and often. If the Eagles build a lead, Barkley becomes the closer.
Case Keenum Under 167.5 Passing Yard
If you're betting the Under on the game total, this is the correlated prop that makes sense. Keenum's projection is 162.41 yards — below the line — and the game script points toward a run-heavy Chicago attack. The Bears lead the NFL in carries (35.0 per game) and rushing yards (212.5 per game), and with a 38-year-old backup under center, Ben Johnson will lean on the ground game to protect him.
The Eagles' pass defense ranks 5th in passing yards allowed (181.0 per game) and 5th in completion percentage allowed (57.41%). That's a tough matchup for a quarterback making his first start since 2023. The Bears' own staff writers expect the quarterback — whoever it is — to be "under 200 yards but efficient with several schemed-up short completions."
The Bears' offensive DVOA ranking (1st) is inflated by their dominant rushing attack and the two games Williams played. Without him, that number is misleading. The Eagles' defensive efficiency — 6th in yards per play allowed — is the more reliable indicator here.
⚠️ INJURY REPORT
Eagles: Dallas Goedert (Out), Hollywood Brown (Out), Landon Dickerson (IR), Grant Calcaterra (IR), Johnny Wilson (IR), Jonathan Greenard (Questionable)
Bears: Caleb Williams (Out), Kyler Gordon (Out), Shemar Turner (Out), Noah Sewell (Out), plus a long list of players on injured reserve
The Goedert absence is significant for the Ertz props — it clears the tight end room for him. The Williams absence is the entire story of the game.
🏁 THE BOTTOM LINE
Eagles win this game. The quarterback advantage is too large to ignore, and the market has already moved decisively toward Philadelphia on both the spread and the total. My top plays are the Eagles -3.5, the Under 41.5, and the Ertz receiving yards over — that's a clean, correlated card that all points the same direction: a low-scoring, grind-it-out Philadelphia win.
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FREE PICK: LUTHER BURDEN OVER 34.5 RECEIVING YARDS
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