Rockets vs Hawks Free Pick, NBA Free Pick & Predictions 1/29/25

J.A. Cavalier
5 days ago
2 min read

NBA ODDS, NBA PREDICTIONS, NBA PREVIEWS

Rockets vs Hawks Free Pick

The Houston Rockets head to State Farm Arena tonight, January 29, 2026, for a cross-conference matchup against a surging Atlanta Hawks team in one of the more intriguing situational spots on the slate. Atlanta enters at 24–25 riding a four-game winning streak, highlighted by an impressive 117–106 upset of the Boston Celtics, signaling that the Hawks may be finding their stride at the right time.

Houston, meanwhile, arrives at 28–17 and firmly positioned as the fourth seed in the Western Conference, but this is far from an ideal setup. The Rockets are playing the second leg of a back-to-back after a disappointing 111–99 home loss to the San Antonio Spurs, a spot that often tests depth, defensive energy, and transition resistance—especially on the road.

From a betting perspective, this game sets up as a clash between standing and circumstance. Houston has been the more consistent team over the course of the season, but Atlanta’s recent form, combined with rest and home-court advantage, narrows the gap considerably. The Hawks have played with increased pace and confidence during their winning streak, while the Rockets will need to quickly reset both mentally and physically.

With one team trending upward and the other navigating a difficult scheduling spot, this matchup offers clear angles on both the spread and the total. How well Houston manages fatigue—and whether Atlanta can continue to dictate tempo—will go a long way in determining which side of the betting market ultimately proves to be the sharper position.

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FREE PICK Over 224.5

Pace wins the argument. Houston wants to slow it down—they’re 27th in pace—but Atlanta doesn’t care what you want. The Hawks are second in the NBA at 103 possessions a game, and their defense being 25th in points allowed basically turns every night into controlled chaos. Look at the home trend: Atlanta’s last 10 games at State Farm Arena are averaging over 240 total points, with the Over cashing seven times—that’s not random, that’s how they play. Now here’s the key mismatch: Houston’s defense is legit, top 10 in rating, but Atlanta is lethal in transition—second in transition points added, first off steals, and top five in steals overall. That’s live-ball turnovers, runouts, and instant buckets, especially against a Rockets team on a back-to-back. Public sees ‘good defense’ and hesitates; sharps see pace, turnovers, and a home team that forces shootouts. Savage truth? Houston wants a chess match, Atlanta flips the board and starts sprinting. That total at 224.5 is asking to be cleared—Over is the sharp side