Spurs vs Man Utd, Premier League, Free Soccer Picks, Predictions 02/16/25
- Neil Mac
- Feb 15
- 2 min read
Updated: Feb 16
Spurs vs Man Utd: Betting Analysis
Pick: Man Utd Over 1.5 Team Total Goals at +110
Manchester United presents a strong case for hitting the over on 1.5 team goals in this matchup, especially considering Spurs' current struggles. Here’s why this bet holds value.
Spurs' Injury Woes and Fatigue: Spurs have been heavily impacted by injuries in recent weeks, and the accumulated fatigue on their remaining "fit" players is beginning to show. They’re running on fumes, and with a lengthy injury list still unresolved, United should have the upper hand.
Defensive Vulnerabilities
Spurs rank 16th in the league for non-penalty expected goals against (npxGA), highlighting how susceptible they are from open play.
They rank 17th for big chances allowed per game, 14th for chances conceded from set pieces, and a worrying 19th for counterattack chances allowed.
These metrics paint the picture of a team struggling defensively in multiple phases of the game.
Conceding at HomeAt home, Spurs have conceded an average of 1.92 goals per game in the league this season. Even worse, they’ve allowed at least two goals in their last five home games.
Tactical Consistency Works Against Spurs: Spurs are unlikely to deviate from their usual high-risk, high-reward game plan under Postecoglou. This opens the door for United to capitalize on turnovers and exploit their shaky defensive structure.
Man Utd’s Matchup Advantage
While United’s season hasn’t been stellar, this matchup suits them. Since Amorim took over, their pressing game has noticeably improved, giving them the ability to force errors and win the ball in dangerous areas.
United’s attacking numbers suggest they’re due for some positive regression. They’ve averaged 1.5 xG per game but have only scored at a rate of 1.17 goals per game.
Historical Context: Excluding the September meeting where United had a player sent off, they’ve scored at least two goals in six of their last seven meetings with Spurs.
Given Spurs' glaring defensive vulnerabilities and United's potential for improvement in the attacking third, this bet offers excellent value..
Ylose Soccer expert Neil Mac has been delivering profits month on month with his European Soccer expertise.. Follow all his plays from the Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1 Serie A, Champions League, Europa League and Internationals with his weekly package below
