Texans vs Jaguars Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 12/1/24

Houston vs Jacksonville (HOU -5, 44.5)

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Texans vs Jaguars Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 12/1/24

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

The Houston Texans season has not gone to plan so far in 2024, and yet they still find themselves well established as a playoff contender. Now 7-5, CJ Stroud and company will be looking to bounce back from a bitterly disappointing loss to the Tennessee Titans, with another familiar face up next on the schedule.

The Jacksonville Jaguars may be at the opposite end of the division, but both players and coaches are playing for their futures. They’ll want to quickly forget the 52-6 beatdown they took from the Detroit Lions last time out, and will be encouraged by their performance against the Texans the first time around this season.

Brian Thomas Jr. had a big game with six catches for 86 yards and a touchdown, while Tank Bigsby managed 90 rushing yards on just seven carries. The Jags may have lost that game 24-20, but they were at least in the picture.

What exactly we’ll see from the Jacksonville Jaguars offense this weekend is unclear. They were miserable against Detroit, and head coach Doug Pederson has been questioned on countless occasions over the playcalling.

This year, Jacksonville are 30th in yards per game (290.8), 30th in third down conversions (31.93%), and 25th in points per game (18.9). They have been behind the turnover battle all season, sitting 29th with a -0.7 margin. There’s just very little to get excited about besides rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr.

Then the defense has regressed tremendously, 30th in points per game allowed (28.7), dead last in yards allowed, and by some distance… (413.7), while displaying some of the worst pass defense numbers we’ve seen in recent years.

The secondary looked weak going into the season, and has only gotten weaker, and while the game they played against Houston in Week 4 was close enough on the scoreboard, they did allow CJ Stroud to throw for 345 passing yards, while Nico Collins collected 151 receiving yards and a touchdown on no less than 12 catches.

Collins has been back in the lineup now for two weeks, and put up 92 yards and a touchdown in last weekend's loss to the Titans. While impressive, something still looks a little out of sorts with the Texans offense, and CJ Stroud didn’t play well in the loss.

Pressure on Stroud is still a major issue, sacked 8.87% of the time, the 26th best protection in the league. That plus the injuries that have seen receivers in and out of the rotation, and Stefon Diggs now out for the season. It’s been a far more turbulent year for them as a unit, but there is an opportunity for a ‘get right’ game against Jacksonville this weekend

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Texans -5