Texans vs Steelers Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 1/12/25
- J.A. Cavalier
- 22 hours ago
- 4 min read
HOUSTON @ PITTSBURGH (HOU -3, 38.5)
NFL ODDS, NFL PREDICTIONS, NFL PREVIEWS
TEXANS @ STEELERS 1/12/26
It has been almost nine years since the Pittsburgh Steelers last won a postseason game. When Pittsburgh plays Houston tonight in the AFC wild-card round, Aaron Rodgers will be asked to solve the Texans' defense.
"It's win or go home at this point," stated Dylan Cook, a left tackle for the Steelers. "We obviously want to win, but we just got to go out and execute our job and take it one play at a time."
The Texans are getting ready for a fight in the Steel City after finishing 12-5 during the regular season.
"It's going to be old-school football and it's going to be a physical game," stated DeMeco Ryans, the coach of Houston. "If you like football, you should be excited about it, and I'm ready for it."
Since the Steelers' victory over the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round on January 15, 2017, they have lost six straight postseason games. Seven days later, Pittsburgh was defeated by the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game and has now suffered five consecutive opening game playoff losses.
The Baltimore Ravens defeated the Steelers 28–14 in the wild-card round of the previous season. Last Sunday night, Pittsburgh (10-7 in the regular season) defeated Baltimore 26-24 to win the AFC North and secure the matchup with Houston.
The last nine games of the regular season were victories for the Texans. The defense, which is led by defensive ends Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, sets the tone even though they have a standout quarterback in C.J. Stroud.
This season, Houston ranked second in terms of points allowed (17.4 per game) and gave up a league-low 277.2 yards per game. With a takeaway differential of plus-17, the Texans came in second as well.
Anderson tied for seventh place in the NFL with 12 sacks, while Hunter finished third with 15. Safety Jalen Pitre and Calen Bullock, cornerback Kamari Lassiter, and star Derek Stingley Jr. all recorded four interceptions.
"They've just got a kick-butt unit," stated Mike Tomlin, the coach of Pittsburgh. "Yes, they do. Hunter and Anderson make up their elite edge tandem. They rush very well because they have a top-tier corner tandem on the outside. They provide excellent coverage. They are not attempting a schematic division of the atom. When you have corners and edge rushers like that, they don't have to."
Stroud enters the game with a 2-2 postseason record and is participating in the playoffs for the third consecutive year. Despite missing three games because of a concussion, the 24-year-old tossed for 3,041 yards and 19 touchdowns against eight interceptions during the regular season.
Rodgers, meanwhile, has performed admirably for the Steelers, amassing 3,322 yards and 24 touchdowns in 16 games versus seven interceptions. In his last seven outings, he has not been picked off. Despite having an 11-10 postseason record, Rodgers' most recent triumph occurred during the Green Bay Packers' 2020 playoff campaign.
WR DK Metcalf (team-best 850 receiving yards, six touchdowns), who returned from a two-game ban following an altercation with a Detroit supporter, is expected to help the Steelers.
"DK is the No. 1 receiver, so it's great having DK back," Rodgers stated. "I know he's really grateful to be back. We're all grateful that he's returned."
Naturally, Ryans wasn't overly excited about the timing.
Ryans stated, "We have to step up to the challenge there," in reference to Metcalf's defense. "We must play physically against him as well. It will be a difficult task. Throughout his career, he has excelled at making significant plays down the field. I'm sure they're thrilled to have him back."
T.J. Watt, the standout outside linebacker for the Steelers, reported that his body feels excellent after a week of seamless sessions. After missing three games because of a partly collapsed lung, Watt returned with an interception against the Ravens.
Isaiah Loudermilk, a defensive tackle, was downgraded to out against the Texans on Sunday morning due to an ankle injury. After practicing on Friday and Saturday, he was first listed as doubtful.
Davis Mills, Houston's backup quarterback, is labeled as questionable because he did not travel to Pittsburgh on Sunday. Mills and his spouse officially announced the birth of their son on Saturday after welcoming their first child earlier this week.
This season, Mills, 27, went 3-0 as a starter while C.J. Stroud was out due to a concussion. The third-string quarterback for Houston is rookie Graham Mertz.
Additionally, Lassiter (ankle/knee) participated fully in Saturday's practice and is healthy. Cornerback Ajani Carter was sidelined on Sunday due to a hamstring injury, and running back Jawhar Jordan was sidelined on Saturday due to an ankle injury. Jaylen Reed, the safety (forearm), is dubious.
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AARON RODGERS OVER 32.5 PASSING ATTEMPTS
The Steelers projected as the most pass-heavy team in this week’s wild card games with a 61 percent pass rate. They don’t really have a running game and rely heavily on Rodgers. Given the tendencies of both teams, this playoff game should have the highest number of offensive plays. That would give Rodgers the opportunity to go Over this prop, something he has done in each of his last three games and in 4 of the last 5. For the season, opponents have averaged 31.6 pass attempts against Houston’s defense.
