Uruguay vs Colombia, World Cup Qualification, Free Soccer Picks, Predictions 11/15/24
- Neil Mac
- Nov 15, 2024
- 2 min read
World Cup qualification - Friday - Uruguay vs Colombia
Pick: Colombia +0.25 Spread (+0.25 handicap means we get paid in full if Colombia win, we get a half win if they draw, if they lose, we lose the whole stake, Colombia Tie no bet also an acceptable play)
Uruguay have now gone four consecutive World Cup qualifiers without finding the back of the net, and their underlying metrics paint an equally concerning picture.
Defensively, Uruguay have underperformed relative to their results. While they’ve conceded only six goals during qualification, their xGA (expected goals against) stands at 9.6, aligning them with teams like Paraguay, a comparison that underscores their vulnerability at the back.
Colombia, on the other hand, have proven resilient, losing just one of their last 12 qualifiers—a defeat that came under highly unusual circumstances.
Colombia's sole defeat came against Bolivia in a match played at an altitude of 13,615 feet above sea level. Despite the challenging conditions, Colombia arguably deserved to win, as they created numerous high-quality chances but failed to capitalize on them.
Colombia have remained unbeaten against Uruguay in their last four encounters—a remarkable feat, particularly considering they were reduced to 10 men in the most recent two matches.
At the Copa America, Colombia secured a 1-0 victory over Uruguay despite playing the entire second half with 10 men following Muñoz's red card just before halftime. In their prior meeting, they settled for a 2-2 draw—a game they should have won if not for their goalkeeper's rash decision that led to a red card and an injury-time penalty for Uruguay.
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