Warriors vs Timberwolves Free Pick, NBA Free Pick & Predictions 1/24/25

J.A. Cavalier
Jan 24
2 min read

NBA ODDS, NBA PREDICTIONS, NBA PREVIEWS

Warriors vs Timberwolves Free Pick

The defining storyline in this matchup centers on the absence of Jonathan Kuminga, who has been ruled out for the Warriors with knee soreness. Kuminga’s athleticism, rim pressure, and secondary scoring are significant losses, particularly in a game that demands physicality against one of the league’s most imposing frontcourts. Without his ability to attack downhill and stress defenses inside, Golden State becomes even more reliant on perimeter shot-making.

That reliance plays directly into Minnesota’s strengths. The Timberwolves continue to operate with elite efficiency, ranking fifth in expected wins and seventh in net rating, a reflection of their consistency on both ends of the floor. Anchored by the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Minnesota’s defense has been especially effective at limiting clean looks, sitting fifth in the league in effective field goal percentage allowed.

For a Warriors team built heavily around spacing and perimeter creation, this presents a difficult matchup. Minnesota’s ability to shrink driving lanes, contest shots, and control the paint forces opponents into tougher, late-clock attempts. With Kuminga sidelined, Golden State loses one of its few reliable counters to that defensive pressure, tilting the matchup further toward a Timberwolves team that has made a habit of suffocating perimeter-oriented offenses.

Do you want more NBA free picks from J.A. Cavalier?!

FREE PICK Under 234.5

This is one of those games where the defenses show up and the points quietly disappear. Yes, there are stars on the floor, but this matchup is defined by resistance—Minnesota ranks fifth in effective field-goal percentage allowed, and Golden State is number one in the NBA at defending the three at 32.9%, which means the two easiest scoring paths in today’s league are basically shut off. Add in the Wolves forcing opponents into the 14th-highest halfcourt rate at 79%, and suddenly transition—the lifeblood of Overs—is dead on arrival. This turns into long possessions, contested shots, and a lot of ‘what are we running here?’ energy. The market hangs a big total because of names and reputation, but sharps know better: elite defenses plus halfcourt basketball equals fewer possessions and even fewer clean looks. Savage truth? This game’s got way more switching than scoring, and when both teams take away what you do best, the Under isn’t pretty—but it’s profitable